New Mr. Redleg?

Reds beat writer John Fay reported on an encounter he had with Brandon Phillips when he tried to discuss Phillips' contract situation. BP is arbitration eligible and is asking a pretty reasonable $4.2 million for the 2008 season. Not wanting to get in the middle of the negotiations between the team and his agent Phillips kept quiet about the talks. Fay concluded that if Phillips' agent and the Reds are talking without an arbitrator they are most likely discussing a long term contract. Phillips has said before (and recently reiterated) that he wants to be to Cincinnati what Barry Larkin was. While it is refreshing to hear as a sports fan and impelling to hear as a Reds fan, this is probably easier said than done. In a small market like Cincinnati it is difficult to keep top-notch talent and the truth is the team won't be able to keep everyone. I would go out on a limb and say within five years over half of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, BP, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn, and Jay Bruce will be playing elsewhere. There are two schools of thought when it comes to Brandon Phillips. The first thinks that Phillips will never touch his numbers from last season and the team should look to trade him or give him arbitration until he becomes a free agent. I completely understand where these thoughts some from. It wouldn't surprise me if Phillips never had another 30 home run season. However, I would put myself with the group of people (the Reds brass included) who think Phillips will be a top three second baseman for another ten years. Yes, 30 homers may be his limit, but Phillips plays Gold Glove defense, he runs the bases very well, and his eye at the plate gets better every year (three things that never slump). The business of baseball is tough to predict, but I would love to see Phillips and Dunn start spring training sporting 5 to 7 year deals. I bought the rights to http://www.baseballdaily.net/ and hope to have the site up and running in a couple weeks. Final Note: I wish I had a picture of Brandon Phillips posing in the grass.

Affeldt Better

By now I'm sure you all have heard about the Reds signing lefty started/reliever Jeremy Affeldt (this is a picture of Affeldt and his wife, I thought it would give this blog more cred to have an actual posed photo). The first thing I remember about Jeremy Affeldt is my first year of playing fantasy baseball, reading about him being a sleeper so I picked him off the waiver wire and dropped him three starts later. Five years later Affeldt has posted very forgettable seasons between the rotation and the pen. However, before you crazies start screaming 'Eric Milton', keep this in mind; Affeldt has pitched 486 innings in his career and has given up 45 home runs. That is a better clip than Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. For that reason I think Affeldt should be given a fair shot at the rotation. It could be that at 28 he has turned a corner in his career. You may think I'm nuts but the best case scenario for the Reds would be Affeldt gets 10 or 11 wins by the All Star break and they deal him by the trade deadline. The Reds have too many young starters knocking on the door to keep Affeldt in the rotation for too long. All that being said, the most likely outcome will see the lefty in the pen by May and Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey, and Edinson Volquez rounding out the rotation. All in all this move helps the Reds bullpen more than anything. Affeldt will probably be a legit long relief guy, something that a team like the Reds (young starters and potentially explosive offense) really needs.

Final note. I am working on turning this blog into an actual website and start covering all of baseball, so I won't be posting as much. I will keep you updated. Thanks

Hate to be Contrary

Adam and I tend to agree on many things Cincinnati baseball. Walt Jocketty appears not to be one of them.

Walt Jocketty during his time in St. Louis has amassed one of the most successful track records of talent acquisition via tradei n recent memory. One trade, Haren, is on the minus side of the list, but look at his pluses.

The list of player acquired by Jocketty via trade...
Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.

Notable players given up in those trades....
Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.

By targeting good but under appreciated star or near-star players, Jocketty created a fantastic cycle of these players flourishing under the love of St. Louis fandom, and then signing them at a discount. Jocketty also has a great track record of developing pitching staffs on the cheap. Jocketty is also the shrewdest deadline dealer in baseball.

Granted, his farm systems ran pretty thin, and his big league clubs didn't have a lot of depth, due to his constant dealing of mid-level prospects. However, the Cardinals have been the premier NL ballclub under Jocketty.

Ultimately, anytime an organization can add a baseball mind such as Jocketty's to its ranks, I view it as good. In my opinion, the front office management today is smarter and more experienced than it was at the end of the season with the addition of Jocketty. And that's a good thing

A Foggy Day In Cncy Town

For a week that nothing happened this has been an almost eventful first several days of the year for the Redlegs. First, things that haven't happened. The Reds haven't signed a free agent pitcher. Josh Fogg has been linked to Cincinnati for a couple weeks, but nothing has happened and hopefully things will stay that way. Fogg is one of those guys who are getting rich off the fact that starting pitching is in such high demand. Honestly, and nothing personal, Josh Fogg shouldn't be in the majors. But in a league where Gil Meche makes $11 million a year and pitchers from World Series teams are priceless, Fogg sucks all the way to the bank. Kris Benson is about the only free agent I would be interested in seeing in Cincy, and even he would just be getting in the way of either Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, or Matt Maloney. If he is signed unless he pitches out of his mind, I would trade him at the deadline. If he remains healthy he is bound to fetch a Maloney-type prospect. Next: Things that shouldn't happen. Any trade. The Orioles are out of their minds if they think the Reds will give up three of last season's top 30 prospects and a very promising, young third baseman. After all is I've written, I really hope the Reds stand pat with their rotation. Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Belisle, and Dusty's choice of Edinson Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, or Maloney to fill out the starting five is a situation the vast majority of teams would love to have. Finally; something that did happen. Bob Castellini brought in ex-Cardinal GM Walt Jocketty to be his personal baseball advisor. When one can't argue with Jocketty's track record (one of the best runs for one of the most storied teams), I worry a little about one trade. Kiko Calero and Dan Haren for Mark Mulder. Obviously, at the time Mulder was one of the best lefties in baseball, but Calero was a young stud reliever and Dan Haren has won 21 more games, in the American League, than Mulder since that deal. Tony LaRussa basically begged for Jocketty not to pull that trigger but to no avail. The Reds can't afford a miscue like that. If you are wondering why I'm so worked up, it is because it seems Jocketty is here to be Krivsky's replacement.

Pressure Drop

I have spent the last several months researching free agent pitchers and pining over improbable trades for ace-like starters. Today I want to bring up another glaring problem with the Redlegs that if left unsolved will be just one more reason why the team doesn't win. As it seems today the Opening Day roster will have either Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel starting center field and leading off. As bench players Hopper and Freel are very good pieces. Freel can steal a base in late-inning situations and Hopper can punch a single against most relievers. But as every day lead off batters neither has the speed to get 50+ stolen bases or an OBP that scares anyone. Now a quick fix to this problem would be start Jay Bruce in center on Opening Day and bat him lead off. This would be as ideal as things could get, Bruce is better defensively than Hopper and Freel and it would give the young hitter an extra at bat every game. Unfortunately, I doubt this will happen. As much as I would like to see him, Bruce will most likely spend a few months in triple A (with Johnny Cueto). However, even Bruce isn't a long term answer; he is more than likely the three hole hitter of the future. The position most likely to be open that may offer a lead off hitter in the future is shortstop. Michael Griffin and Justin Turner are the only two guys who have played infield in the minors that could possibly be looked upon as top of the line up players, but it is more possible that neither even make it to the bigs. If the Reds are unable to track down a shortstop like Jose Reyes (not as good, but you get what I'm saying), Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs are interesting names in Cincy's system. Both are too old and promising to be spending much more time in the minors. Stubbs, the Reds first round pick from last year, will be 23 this season and is more of a prototypical lead off guy than anyone else on the team. In his first year Stubbs recorded on OBP of .364, an OPS of .785, 23 steals, and 12 homers. Dickerson has been having success in the minors for a couple years now, but hasn't seen the majors. At 26, it is time for the Reds to make a decision on the outfielder. He would also bring a decent OPS of .796 to the lead off position. Over his career Adam Dunn has had to hear about his low RBI totals, even with his 40+ home runs; it wouldn't be surprising to see Dunn drive in 120 if the Reds ever get a major league lead off hitter.

New Year, New Reds?

Well, even though I took a few days off for the holidays not much has changed on the Reds front. Aaron Harang is still the best player on the team, Homer Bailey is still on the team, Erik Bedard still isn't, and Josh Hamilton is still traded. Chances are very good that all of those things will still be true on Opening Day. However, there is a good chance changes could come. The Cardinals signed Matt Clement, the Astros are rumored to be interested in Freddy Garcia, the Brewers are after Luis Gonzalez and Kenny Lofton, the Cubs signed a Japanese star, and the Pirates are all over the rumor mill. That being said I don't see Wayne Krivsky sitting idle while the competition gets better. No, Cordero isn't enough, I haven't heard anyone say 'the Reds are a closer away'. There was one deal made that might effect the Redlegs. Columbus native Nick Swisher was traded from the Oakland A's to the Chicago White Sox. This tells me that A's GM Billy Beane will at least listen to offers for anyone. I think the Reds have fallen out of the Erik Bedard race which may not be a bad thing. I still wouldn't trade Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto for Bedard. Krivsky sould be on the phone with Beane to see if they could put together a Bailey (or Cueto) and Votto for Joe Blanton deal. I have written about Blanton's credentials and I feel he would be more likely to sign long term in Cincy than Bedard. As time ticks by it does make me wonder if any trade will happen. The acquisition of Edinson Volquez and the hesitation to trade Bailey and Cueto make me think the team is building for the future, which is a little hard to believe considering Krivsky's contract is up after this season.

Fair Trade?

As you may have been able to tell, Josh Hamilton was traded during the time I was writing the last entry. I have let it sink in a little and after listening to many angry Reds fans I have still yet to form a strong opinion on the deal. It seems most fans in Cincinnati are up in arms and I can understand where they are coming from. Josh Hamilton could become one of the best all-around players in the game, if he ever plays a full season he should be an obvious All-Star and possible MVP candidate. And, although we hear about Cincy having a logjam in the outfield, I'm not sure I agree. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. are in the last year of their contracts (I know Grif has an option) and I'm pretty sure Dunn will stay but that still only gives us he and Jay Bruce for 2009. Also, this Edinson Volquez is anything but a sure thing. Volquez was the diamond in the Rangers system two years ago, but after an injury and several road blocks Volquez became an expendable player for a pitcher-starved franchise. However, Wayne Krivsky has a number of reasons to be optimistic about this trade. Josh Hamilton was riddled with injury in 2007, and it wasn't like it was one thing that kept nagging him, one week it was one thing, the next week it was something else. Another point for the GM is that when Hamilton has a great bat, he is left-handed like Adam Dunn, Griffey, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Scott Hatteberg. Finally the strongest argument anyone in favor of this deal would have would be summed up in the position these guys play. While I don't personally buy the "too many outfielders" argument, one can't deny the Reds have too little pitching. If the Reds don't land Erik Bedard (which I don't think they will at this point) they can go into Spring Training with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo set in their rotation and Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Matt Belisle, Matt Maloney, and Edinson Volquez competing for the final three spots. And trust me, that would be much, much better than those they had competing last season.