Extra Points

Just a couple things to think about as you wonder if the Reds are going to end 2007 without another major move. I was listening to Marty and Thom do the Reds Hot Stove League last night and they talked about the obvious things; steriods, Joe Nuxhall, trades, etc. Marty did make one interesting point, he voiced his concern about the Reds lack off a leadoff hitter. It is easy to look at the line up and think that the Reds are set and possibly over-set at each position. But, while it's nice to give Josh Hamilton 5 at bats each game, he is a prototypical three hole hitter. And don't give me the Norris Hopper noise, I like Hopper, I really do, but he is most valuable to the Reds as a bench guy (I watched first hand as he beat the D-Backs with an 8th inning pinch hit). Even if Hopper were starting he's more of a 7th or 8th spot guy. Unfortunately, this need usually gets over looked. It is certainly not as important as another starter, but just think if they had a .400+ obp guy who could steal 50 bases hitting ahead of Phillips, Hamilton, Dunn, and Griffey. The only thing the Reds would possibly do about this problem would be start Jay Bruce. Grady Sizemore very successfully leads off for the Indians and one unnamed scout from an American League team said Jay Bruce is a lot like Sizemore, just better, at everything. Also I read on ESPN.com that a beat writer for the Baltimore Orioles said that a deal for Erik Bedard most likely will happen, but not until January. There have been reports that the Reds will use Edinson Volquez, the new pitcher they got for Josh Hamilton, as another piece to acquire Bedard. If Volquez/Votto/and Bailey is on the table for Erik Bedard I'm not sure what Baltimore is waiting for. Tomorrow I will look deeper into the Hamilton trade.

Closing In On Jared Burton

An e-mail sent to me from Tom: Yo, I'm working on an article for the sight comparing the pitch f/x data that charts the movement on pitches and allows you to compare pitchers and their pitches. The system was installed in a portion of MLB parks last year, and its used on the GameCast on MLB.com to help show what type of pitch was thrown. Well, I've been analyzing Jared Burton especially, and it turns out he throws an almost exact Mariano Rivera cutter. They both get hit harder by righties than lefties as well, which accounts for the cutter moving in on lefties and away from righties. Whether he knows he's throwing this pitch or not, I'm not sure. I haven't heard it mentioned on anything I've seen about the Reds or by Marty or anyone. But this certainly bodes very well for the future of Burton, if he can throw this pitch consistently and he actually knows what he's doing. This information is obviously exciting for several reasons. Francisco Cordero is going to be the Reds closer (barring injury) for the next three years. Cordero has a very good track record, but the batters in the NL Central have seen him. I'm not suggesting I think he will be a flash in the pan, but closers not named Rivera or Hoffman come with a limited shelf-life. Jared Burton should be poised to take over the job if Cordero's arm falls off in spring training. I have been saying that Burton should keep his position as set up man in 2008 so he remains used to pressure situations and because of Stormy's ability to pitch with runners on will better serve the team in early innings. This information Tom offers gives us hope that these plans for Burton can take place. Hopefully he doesn't go to the same shrink as Todd Coffey.

Next Steps?

Dan Haren is gone (to Arizona) and with each passing day it seems that Erik Bedard is getting further and further out of reach. The fact that Haren fetched six player doesn't really bode well for the Reds' attempt to acquire Bedard. Although they have a decent haul to offer (Homer Bailey, Joey Votto/ Josh Hamilton, and another prospect), it would be difficult and possibly wasteful for the Reds to find six guys to send to Baltimore. Nashville native and Kentucky alum, Joe Blanton is the new name on the block. It is not completely clear whether A's GM Billy Beane is willing to part with Blanton, but everyone has a price. Blanton's price would be considerably lower than that of Haren and Bedard. If the Reds could pull off a deal for Blanton without Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this would be the best offseason of my life. It may not be possible, but perhaps Joey Votto paired with Josh Hamilton or Edwin Encarnacion and a prospect or two could entice Oakland. Josh Hamilton would be a huge upgrade over Mark Kotsay in centerfield, Eddie would be an affordable replacement to a soon-to-be-traded Eric Chavez, and while Daric Barton has high hopes in Oakland, Joey Votto would certainly play over Travis Buck in left field. I'm not sure I would do it, but if the Reds were to offer Homer Bailey up for Joe Blanton this deal could get done in no time. While Blanton is a horse (230 innings last season), he really isn't an ace, in fact the Reds would probably place him after Bronson Arroyo. It's a tough call trading a prized prospect for a known commodity. If it were straight up Blanton for Bailey I think I'd do it. Keeping Eddie is important because he's a righty and young, keeping Hamilton is important because he can play right next year when Jay Bruce is full-time centerfielder, and keeping Votto is important because Scott Hatteberg won't be playing forever. It will be interesting to see what happens. I know Wayne Krivsky wants to acquire another starter, but I also appreciate him not dealing away the team's future for one guy.

The Mitchell Retort

I spent the good part of yesterday afternoon and evening skimming the Mitchell Report and I must say, I want my time back. There were no big names on that list that I hadn't heard whispers about for years. Hal Morris was a little surprising, but I assume he is on the report because of his days with the Yankees. Speaking of the Yanks, it's a little odd how George Mitchell, who holds an official position with the Red Sox, was able to come up with so many Yankees and so little from other teams. The report read more like a 400 page D.A.R.E. handbook than a quasi-legal document. We know drugs are bad. There are some really good things for a Reds fan to take away from the report. Mike Stanton is the only active Red on the list. Mike Stanton? Quite possibly the worst guy on the team? Dude, when did you get off the juice? At least we can say 'well our team sucks because nobody is on steroids'. I have never once thought of Adam Dunn as a user, but with so many home runs in his young career I'm sure there have been suspicions. The fact that Dunn wasn't names, but has faced pitchers who were, just makes his accomplishments that much better. Honestly the whole thing is pretty pointless. The most that will come out of it will be a few suspensions here and there, but it's still one man's word against anothers. I heard yesterday that one player who's name is on the list for a returned check written to Radomski (the Mets clubhouse guy), was able to prove that check was written for the clubhouse attendants to buy pizza. Checks are another thing. What kind of guy buys drugs with a check? I'm not going to say it didn't happen, but a good many of those names came from check copies and I don't think very many people are that careless. I don't know; this is all I'll write about the Mitchell Report, but it is the biggest news in baseball right now, so I though I'd mention it.

Swap Meet

Well, it looks like Wayne Krivsky may not be willing to wait around for Erik Bedard. There have been several reports coming out of Cincinnati and the Bay Area linking the Reds to much heralded Dan Haren. I can't express who much I love Krivsky's fortitude. He knows that when Johan Santana finally gets dealt it will only be a matter of time before Bedard and Haren are sent packing. The fact that the Reds are in on both Bedard and Haren tells me that Krivsky is pretty sure they are in a good position to acquire one. If one guy is moved to a team other than the Reds it leaves Wayne as the front runner for the other. This leaves a fellow like to me consider the pros and cons of each player. Dan Haren is 27 and will be rather affordable the next couple years. He started the All-Star Game in 2007, ahead of Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia. Haren is consistent, he pitched over 215 innings for three straight years, logged 34 starts in that span, and won 14, 14, and 15 games. My personal favorite thing about Dan Haren possibly becoming a Red would be facing Tony LaRussa. Mr. Baseball wasn't too excited about trading Haren for Mark Mulder in 2005, so it would be great to see Haren mow down that so-called lineup. Erik Bedard's biggest pro is his left arm. Bedard is also pretty young 28, but would command a pay increase sooner than Haren. Bedard faces better hitters day in day out in the A.L. East, but has never logged 200 innings. The final strike against Bedard is he is without a sweet beard, Haren on the other hand rocks a powerful mane. Bedard is still probably Krivsky's first choice, but he has put himself in great position to start 2008 with another starter.

Hold On A Second

John Fay, Reds beat writer, reported the end of last week that a deal between the Reds and Orioles involving Erik Bedard and Homer Bailey is still on the table. Fay mentions that Joey Votto and another prospect would be involved. Since the Orioles completely suck and have a need at basically every position you may be able to insert Edwin Encarnacion or Josh Hamilton in place of Joey Votto. With that being said I think I'll take this opportunity to change my stance on Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton. It seems there are more than a few in the Reds organization who believe Josh Hamilton would best serve the team as trade bait. Is Hamilton ever going to be able to really fully recover athletically? I'll say now that Hamilton at 27 in May, with the questions is on the same trade plain with Joey Votto at 23. With Jay Bruce and to a lesser extent Chris Dickerson waiting for their opportunities at the majors, even with his extreme abilities,Hamilton could be traded. Back to Bedard. If the Reds could pull this deal off by sending Homer Bailey, Votto (or Eddie or Hamilton), and a minor leaguer that isn't Bruce or Johnny Cueto I'd be pleased as punch. I would then, reasonably would expect Bob Castellini to pony up the money to keep Bedard in Cincy for several years. These two things would have to happen (no Cueto and no Bruce and extension) for me to support this trade. I think if the Reds are man enough it could happen. Votto and Bailey give the Orioles two big pieces to sell their fans and trade in four years. And imagine the rotation for the Reds. Aaron Harang, Erik Bedard, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Belisle, and Johnny Cueto. If a team would have to face Harang and Bedard to open a series they would strike out so many times that by the time game three rolls around Arroyo would be able to confuse hitters to no end. With a line up of (assuming Hamilton is the one moved) Jay Bruce leading off (for lack of a better option), Brandon Phillips two, Adam Dunn, Eddie, Griffey Jr. Alex Gonzalez, Joey Votto, and David Ross catching. Merged with an improved bullpen I like this team's chances in a league that produced the Colorado Rockies in 2007.

Upon Further Review

Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone and the Reds have nothing to show for the week's work. Yet, we should not fret, a move could still be made between today and Spring Training. I have to say I'm a little disappointed Wayne Krivsky didn't come away with another starter, but I am glad he didn't mortgage the future for a four of five guy. They did pick up a guy in the Rule 5 draft; Sergio Valenzuela will most likely be fighting for a spot in the bullpen come Feburary. Valenzuela is a 23 year old, righty who is doing very well in winter league play, but doesn't have much else on his resume. But somebody saw something in him, so let us cross our collective fingers and hope for Jared Burton part two. What I want to touch on today is the notorious trade that went down between the Reds and Nationals in 2006. Cincinnati was up in arms when their native son (Austin Kearns), heir apparent to Barry Larkin (Felipe Lopez), and first-round pick (Ryan Wagner) were traded to evil Jim Bowden. Not only was it heartbreaking to see those players go, who did the Reds get in return? Royce Clayton!!!! Are you kidding me?! Well, I am, as I'm sure you are, glad to see Royce Clayton out of town. Brenden Harris was another piece that has been shipped out. Harris had a decent season with the Devil Rays in 2007, and while the Reds don't need a starting middle infielder, it wouldn't hurt to have Harris as a backup. Oh well. Gary Majewski and Bill Bray were supposed to fill right in the bullpen and change the season. Majewski was alleged to be damaged goods and may never recover, but if he ever does return to his best form he'll make the Reds pen one of the elite. Bray is still young, 24, and left-handed so he will be forgiven for his sub-par numbers last season. While with the Nationals, Bray's face was plastered all over press releases, so as far as the Nats I think Bray was the biggest piece they gave up. But none of these names are who I find intriguing. Daryl Thompson is the last, long forgotten piece of this deal. I personally watched one of Thompson's five starts in Low-A Dayton last year, and I can say without hesitation if he progress as he should, he will be in the majors in a couple seasons. Thompson, who just celebrated his 22nd birthday, had 14 wins against 5 loses between Low and High-A baseball while posting an ERA of 3.18. He pitched 133 innings and gave up 122 hits, only 33 walks, and struck out 121. If he can make the bigs by 2009 to fill out a rotation of Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and himself, Daryl Thompson will most certainly be the biggest piece of that trade.......for both sides.