Trade Or Sign

I had a conversation with Tom over the weekend and he brought up Matt Garza and the chances the Reds had of landing him. Well, Garza was traded to the Rays for Delmon Young. Both of these players are highly touted for their potential and even though pitchers are far more valuable, I think the Twins got the better of this deal. Back to the Reds, it is obvious that Garza is history, but I wonder if this trade might open the door to a possible Scott Kazmir trade. The Rays still have an abundance of young outfielders so they probably would have not interest in re-acquiring Josh Hamilton. However, if the Rays are smart (which if an if), they will be looking to move Carlos Pena, hopefully for pitching. Pena, who will turn 30 next season, had a career year in 2007, mashing 46 homers and driving in 121 runs. Pena hadn't sniffed 30 home runs prior to 2007 and has been tossed about like a burning coal between 5 teams over his career. Pena made $800,000 last years and would be a bargain for a team looking for a power bat. If Pena is moved the Reds should swoop in with Joey Votto and Homer Bailey and see if they can sweet talk Scott Kazmir away from the Rays. I can hear people saying, 'Adam are you crazy? Homer Bailey is our future and Joey Votto has the potential to be a perennial all-star!' I may be crazy but Bailey is in the future and as it has been said, who knows what the future will bring. Kazmir posted two seasons of a sub-3.50 era in the best offensive division in baseball, while striking out 239 batters in 2007. If some one might ask, 'why would you include Votto in this deal?' well the sad truth is the Reds don't have one player worth Scott Kazmir, and as I've said before, Votto is much more valuable as a trade piece than a first baseman. Teaming Kazmir with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo would give the Reds the best 1-2-3 punch in the National League. The Reds have the pieces to make a playoff run next year, but without another reliable starter the chances of them making the World Series is slim. The chances of them signing that reliable starter are actually slimmer. Carlos Silva is basically the only player who would fall under that category, but his price tag is going to be much too high. I do believe whole-heartedly that Krivsky will make a move for a starter and if he is willing to part with Votto, Hamilton, Bailey (only for a proven ace), and even Adam Dunn, the chances are better we fans get a winning product on the field in 2008. *One more note to Bionic 1 who left a comment on the last post. I can't agree with your view on the Reds ("the Reds suck") but I do, however, share your thoughts on Ms. Clinton. And I thank you for reading the blog, if you ever have any suggestions on how the Reds could be more like the Yankees please let me know.......you know aside from the $200 million payroll.

A Closer Look

So what does the Francisco Cordero signing mean big picture? Well, it gives the Reds the best closer in the NL Central. St. Louis closer Jason Isringhausen has had a very good career, and even had a nice bounce back year last season, but one would be foolish to take him over Cordero at this point in their careers. Matt Capps in Pittsburgh could end up having a decent career as a closer but it is much too early to tell, and chances are, if he does turn out to be dominant, he won't spend much time as a Pirate. If the Cubs stay with Ryan Dempster they will be luckily to return to the playoffs. Chad Qualls will most likely be the closer next season for the Astros. Qualls had a decent season in 2007, but will have to prove himself without Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler with him in the pen. The poor Brewers are lost for a closer. With Cordero in Cincy, Derrick Turnbow is next in line and that's good news......for everyone but the Brewers. More than the closer, the Cordero move helps the entire pen. Last season's laughing stock, the bullpen in 2008 could possibly be a strength. If David Weathers, Jared Burton, and Cordero can repeat their performances from 2007 and Dusty Baker can plug them in during the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings respectively on a consistent basis, it could be the difference between 72 and 90 and the playoffs. Hopefully, that trio will make things easier for the likes of Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, and Todd Coffey. And if all my dreams come true perhaps the team can send a hat around the clubhouse to collect $2 million so the Reds can eat Mike Stanton's contract.

Thanks Bob

Even if you are a die-hard Reds fan and are only used to let down and disappointment you have to be encouraged by the signing of Francisco Cordero. I know what most Reds fans will say; we over paid. The truth is we might have, but perhaps not, the only thing that really matters is Cordero will be wearing a wishbone 'C' hat on opening day. As fans, we hear about Cincinnati being a small market and how the team needs to be careful inking big contracts, but when it is all said and done its Bob Castellini's money. Castellini can spend whatever, whenever he wants, he can make the team's payroll $100 million if he wants. The Reds needed bullpen help especially in the back end and Castellini went out and got the best guy on the market. After the first wave of excitement, I got to sit back and think of the trickle down effect this will have for the Reds. -Derrick Turnbow will be the closer for the Brewers. Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, David Ross, Jeff Keppinger (and I could go on) can't wait for the first series with the Brew Crew. -Bronson Arroyo may actually get 15 wins. After two pretty solid years Bronson can sit back and watch Todd Coffey stay seated in the pen. -Aaron Harang will finally get the national publicity he deserves. I don't see 18-20 wins being out of the question. -Jared Burton and David Weathers can remain and return to positions of comfort. Burton should most likely stay pitching the eighth and hope last season wasn't a fluke. While Stormy should pitch the sixth and seventh innings especially when starters strand runners. I was discussing this deal with my friend and blog contributor, Tom, and he mentioned that a big free agent reliver signing could mean other things to come (see 2005 Blue Jays). If this is true I'd still like to see Joey Votto moved for a starter, but I think in the coming weeks we could see Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips sign extensions. It would be nice to see a closer, three starters, and several offensive pieces signed for a number of years.

Reds Base(ball)

Okay, okay. I know several people have accused me of trading the entire roster on this blog. Let me start by saying that as much as I love the Reds they have sucked for seven years so trading everyone couldn't be that bad. Yet it is true, there are a few base players the organization should keep. Adam Dunn is one guy who has value unlike any player on the roster. Not only has he put up numbers unmatched by any Red in history, but when Ken Griffey Jr. leaves at the end of this season (or before) Dunn gives the marketing department a star to sell. Say what you will, but behind Griffey, you see more number 44 jerseys in Great American than any other. Fans complain about Dunn because they feel he should play Gold Glove defense and they suggest replacing him with Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel. I don't have time to list all the reasons why that would be a horrible idea, but I'll list a few. Dunn has more talent in one finger than Freel and Hopper have combined. Hopper is a career minor leaguer and has been shipped from the majors back to the minors, while the Reds couldn't call Dunn up fast enough and have never sent him back down. For people who gripe about Dunn's strike outs; if Freel could ever stay healthy enough to play a full season he would strike out at least as many times, and he is a leadoff hitter. Lastly, Dunn is younger than both Freel and Hopper. After Dunn, but in no order, I'd put Josh Hamilton and Jay Bruce. I put them together because they both are young outfielders who, in a matter of years, could very possibly be the two best in the National League. Hamilton and Bruce could be expected to post .300 batting averages, 30+ home runs, 90+ rbi, and Gold Glove caliber defense. I dream of a year that sees Hamilton and Bruce one and two in the MVP voting. Brandon Phillips is the only infielder in the organization that I would peg as a keeper. At 26 Phillips (while being protected by Dunn mind you) posted Barry Larkin-type numbers while playing Barry Larkin-type defense. Pitching is a different bear. The Reds will always be in need of pitching, but it doesn't mean they should hold on to seventh inning relievers or 4th or 5th starters. I wouldn't trade Aaron Harang because I could get a better pitcher in return. An All-star bat doesn't equal Harang. I would keep Homer Bailey close unless I could get a proven number one for him. Since those chances are slim Bailey is a keeper. Johnny Cueto is a keeper because nobody knows what he'll become so nobody would be willing to give equal value. There is really on one in the bullpen I wouldn't trade if the right offer came up, but I'd need a proven starter or dependable reliever for a few. Jared Burton is the most important member of the pen going into 2008. If Burton becomes the closer he has the ability to, he'll solidify once shaky ground. Bill Bray is a guy I put just under Burton. I would try to groom Bray as the set-up man for 2008. Jon Coutlangus, Marcus McBeth, and Gary Majewski are guys who could go either way. All three could become important cogs in the relief corp or they could all three be gone this time next year. So there you go, a list of guys I would like to see around for a while. Making out this list makes me more encouraged for the team's future. You will notice though, I didn't use the word "untradable", there is nobody in baseball that is untradable if the offer is right.

Fast Eddie

With so many teams this off season looking for a third baseman Edwin Encarnacion could turn out to be the poor man's Miguel Cabrera. It is obvious now that Alex Rodriguez is staying with the Yankees, so if the Reds were to trade him, I'd put Eddie behind Miggy as third basemen on the market. Eric Chavez is also being talked about, but with his history of injury and bulky contract, I think Eddie is more valuable. Teams seem to be mortgaging their futures for Cabrera. The Dodgers may offer Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and Clayton Kershaw, while the Angels could ante up Ervin Santana, Howie Kendrick, Chris Bootcheck, and Nick Adenhart.Let me now say that Miggy does have considerably more talent and value than Eddie, but I would honestly take Clayton Kershaw straight up for Encarnacion. Kershaw is a big (6'4'' 215 lbs), young (19)lefthander who has done nothing but mow down the competition. If I were the Dodgers I'm not sure I'd even make that trade, but if they are willing to offer LaRoche and Kemp along with Kershaw for Cabrera, I think the Reds should look into it. And as far as the Angels go I would take Nick Adenhart for Eddie. Adenhart posted a 3.65 era in double A last season, he struck out 116 to 65 walks and most importantly he only allowed 7 home runs in 153 innings. At 21 Adenhart would fit nicely behind Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Homer Bailey and could possibly develop into a solid third starter, and a third starter sounds really good for Edwin.

Trade Winds

Today Jon Garland was traded to the Angels for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. It would have been nice for the Reds to get an arm like Garland however, this whole thing could turn out better for the home team. If it is true that the team's payroll will only be increased by about 6 six million there is no way the Reds will be able to sign a free agent starter worth signing. This means Wayne Krivsky should really look into trading for a second or third starter. Now that Garland is with the Angels there is no question that they are looking to unload a starter. Garland, John Lackey, and Kelvim Escobar are most likely not on the market. The Angels would more than likely love to see a team make an offer for Ervin Santana because any pitcher with a home era of 3.27 and a road era of 8.38 has something wrong above the neck. We'll know how much the Angels want a bat if they put Jared Weaver on the trade block. Weaver had a slight fall off last season, but finished with 13 wins and an era under four. If the Reds were to show interest in Weaver the Angels would more than likely ask for Dunn at which time the Reds would laugh and offer Joey Votto (and maybe throw in Chris Dickerson). I would make this trade if I were the Reds, I probably wouldn't if I were the Angels but it never hurts to ask. While we're on the topic of teams in California with a wealth of young pitching and a need for bats, let's bring in the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have no less than four pitchers that would be the second best if they were to be slipped into the Reds rotation. San Fran has also expressed interest in Dunn and, as important as Dunn is to the team, the Giants have a couple names that might interest me. Tim Lincecum would be a guy I would take for Dunn straight up. Noah Lowry and Matt Cain would be acceptable pieces for Dunn, but I'd need a little more. If I were Krivsky I would again use Joey Votto as a piece to try and pry Lowry or Cain from the Giants. If Votto alone didn't work I'd try to come up with a blockbuster type deal sending Votto packaged with either Ken Griffey Jr. or Edwin Encarnacion and inquire about a minor league reliever to add with Lowry or Cain. The truth is, the Reds have plenty of offensive pieces in Dunn, Josh Hamilton, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce going into 2008, making guys like Eddie, Votto, and Griffey more valuable as trade bait.

Thanks For The Memories

Thanks to my father, the summers of my youth revolved around Reds games on the radio. Marty Brennaman and Joe Nuxhall gave me some of the best memories of my life and I didn't even realize it. Looking back on it Marty and "the old left-hander" made it easy for young boys and old men to continue loving the Reds through the lean years. Hamilton native, Joe Nuxhall died last night at the age of 79 following his bout with cancer. Nationally, Nuxhall was probably best known for being the youngest player in baseball history. The story goes that Reds scouts were sent to check out Nuxhall's father and ended up with Joe. On June 10th, 1944, with the team's roster depleted from WW II, Joe appeared in relief at the age of 15. He retired the first two batters but was rattled when Stan Musial came to the plate, Joe surrendered a line drive single to Musial and was unable to record another out. Nuxhall won 135 games in his 16 year career. In 1967 Joe became the voice of the Reds, and when he teamed up with Brennaman in 1974, the two became heroes in Cincinnati. Nuxhall and Brennaman called three world series titles and five National League pennants. Marty was known for brash, controversial comments while Joe was always pleasant and agreeable. One moment, however, will live in infamy in Cincinnati and the commissioner's office. In 1988 Marty, Joe, and Pete Rose (who was playing) disagreed with a call umpire Dave Pallone undoubtedly blew and while Rose was screaming and chest bumbing Pallone, the announcers encouraged fans to throw trash onto the field. Nuxhall and Brennaman were both suspended by commissioner Bart Giamatti, making them legends in the field. Perhaps the most unfortunate aspect of Nuxhall's passing is that he is again a finalist for the Ford Frick award. The award, which has been bestowed on Brennaman, is an announcer's ticket to the Hall of Fame. So on this day when the baseball news is filled with greedy, attention grabbing children and medically enhanced ogres, let us reflect on a man who's 63 year relationship with one organization should be commended. Joe Nuxhall is finally "rounding third and heading for home".

Comic Relief

Funny? Maybe. Disgraceful? Certainly. Improved? Quite possibly. The Reds 2007 bullpen was at times as comfortable to watch as some blind guy pulling your teeth with rusty pliers. But fear not, Aaron Harang could get those 20 victories he deserves in 2008 if a few simple moves are made. Although the pen was the worst part about 2007 it will be easier to fix than the starting rotation. First Jared Burton should be the closer from day one. David Weathers has done a valiant job the last couple years, but he would be the first to tell you he's not a closer. Burton has the stuff to be a closer and it's time to see if he has the mindset. Second only put Todd Coffey in a game with runners on; a lot of pitchers can't work with that kind of pressure, Coffey can't work without it. Third, cut Mike Stanton. Fourth go after a guy like, or specifically, David Riske. While appearing in a whooping 65 games in 2007 with the lowly Royals, Riske posted a 2.45 era. A 3-year, $10 million dollar* contract would be expensive, but affordable. *May have to pay more....I would. Finally, Reds fans should pray that Gary Majewski is the pitcher they traded for and not a physical and mental train wreck. A bullpen consisting of Bill Bray and Jon Coutlangus from the left side and Stormy, Riske, Majewski, Coffey, and Burton from the right side would not only be better than last year, but could become one of the best in the bigs.

(Not So) Free Agents

The last few entries have covered the Reds future if they stick with what they have and don't go after any free agents, however there are a few players I'd like to see the front office sign. As far as starters go the market is as thin as ever, Kyle Loshe may fetch close to $8 million, so in order for the Reds to find a guy to bridge the gap between Aaron Harang and, well, everyone else, they might have to take a flyer on somebody. Now this risk can be a calculated one, there are starters out there who are ready to return to respectability. I'll give you a name and the chances of that player becoming a Red. Andy Pettitte is the biggest name, but if he returns it will probably be with the Yankees. Chances Pettitte will be a Red in 2008: 0%. Kris Benson is coming off rotator cuff surgery and was never really as good as is contracts anyway. Chances he will be a Red 5%. Randy Wolf could be ready to return to form and if he does I would like him behind Bronson Arroyo, but only for about $5-6 million which probably won't happen. Chances he'll be a Red 10%. Jason Jennings might be an affordable option, but is there too much of a reason for that? The former first round pick has disappointed all but one season and found it hard to get an out in the NL Central last season. Chances he'll be a Red 5%. Matt Clement would be another low risk (possibly) high reward type player. It's yet to be seen what the market will yield for a guy like Clement but he would most likely be affordable for the Reds. Though he hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, Clement does have a decent track record when healthy. If the price is right I'd like to see the Reds go after him. Chances he'll be in Cincinnati 10%. Carlos Silva has the control anyone would want in a starting pitcher (171 walks in 945 career innings) and he is the youngest starter on the market. Silva boasts a career era of 4.31 in the superior American League. There are two strikes against Silva; his price tag ($40 million for four years) and the fact that he gave up 38 home runs in 2006, hello GABP. Chances Silva will be a Red 15%, chances they'll look into him 95%. Freddy Garcia is another guy who has underachieved the last couple seasons, which is good for the Reds. In this market Garcia will probably fetch slightly less than Silva, but could turn out to be the better choice. Like Silva, Garcia has great control, but might find it difficult pitching in a matchbox. Garcia also has a short, but very successful playoff history. Chances he'll be a Red 15%. The best news about this free agent pitching market for the Reds is that Eric Milton is on it. Tomorrow I'll be looking at free agent relievers.

Future Weapons

Over the last few days I've talked about the young prospects the Reds have at their disposal, the future may look bright but it will mean absolutely nothing if the pitching doesn't get better. There is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the starting rotation for the coming years. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are under contract until 2011 and are good one (Harang) and three (Arroyo) starters. I would almost be tempted to set Arroyo as a fourth starter, but he is a horse and in the National League he is in the upper tier. Homer Bailey should be ready to take the leap to number two by 2009, keeping Arroyo as number two for 2008. Bailey certainly has the potential to be an ace in the vein of a Jake Peavy (please God), but will sit comfortably behind Harang for several seasons. My hope for 2007 is that if and when Homer Bailey struggles Dusty Baker keeps him with the big club; Bailey has proven all he can in the minors. Johnny Cueto is another interesting name going forward. Cueto has put up impressive numbers at every level of the minor leagues, but as much as I'd like to see him in the rotation on opening day he should probably spend a couple months at triple-A and wait for an injury. Matt Belisle would be my choice for the fourth starter out of spring training. Belisle is still young and has some of the best stuff in the organization. He'll probably never be more than a fourth starter, but if the Reds are going to do anything in 2008 Belisle will play a big part in the success. Matthew Maloney is the player the Reds received for Kyle Lohse from the Phillies, and could be the fifth starter next season. Maloney posted 13 wins and a very respectable 3.64 era between double A and triple A last year. Most importantly he struck out 177 and walked only 54 and while throwing left handed.

Infield Outlook

The Reds have several young future stars in the outfield, but while the infield isn't quite as stacked there are a few names to look for. I would be wasting my time if I were to sit here a go over what Brandon Phillips has already accomplished in his young career; suffice it to say 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and gold glove quality defense isn't too much to expect from this exciting young player. When Alex Gonzalez isn't what most would call young (30), he certainly has six to seven peak years ahead of him. His defense speaks for its self (a career fielding percentage of .970) and his offense isn't nearly as bad as some expected. A combination of good protection, consistent at bats, and Great American Ball Park will equal career highs for Gonzalez in years to come. Reds fans undoubtedly enjoy their glimpse of Joey Votto at the end of the 2007 season. The left-handed slugger showed why fans and reporters had been clamoring for his call up since the All-Star break. While Votto's approach at the plate is quite different than that of Josh Hamilton the results are similar. Both have very good power to all fields (Hamilton's probably better), both can take pitches away to left field, both have deceptive speed, and both need to work on being patient. The only clear hole in Votto's game would be his defense but if Scott Hatteberg, with his limited physically ability, can play first base, Votto can learn. Edwin Encarnacion may be the most intriguing of the Reds young players. He has flashed greatness at the plate and in the field in small doses. Eddie could become a perennial All-Star and important cog for a championship team, but could also turn out to be a below average defensive third baseman and a frustrating disappointment with a bat in his hands; he'll most likely end up somewhere in the middle. Next in line come names like Jerry Gil and Jeff Keppinger. Neither of these players should become a starter over the former names but both could be solid back-ups and bench pieces. Last, there are names like Paul Janish, Justin Turner, Chris Valaika, and Jose Castro. All of these players could have their names on the back of a Reds uniform in the future, but with the young guys already in the majors, their work is cut out for them. If anything it is nice to know the Reds have the ability to absorb an injury or have a decent trade piece without completely falling apart.

A New Deep

The Reds have something this year that they haven't been used to; depth. With a bevy of talented young players, especially in the outfield, the team has several interesting options. Barring any moves the starting outfield looks like Adam Dunn in left, Josh Hamilton in center, and Ken Griffey Jr. in right. Off the bench the Reds have Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel as formidable options. This would be a very good flock of players for Dusty Baker, but I'm going to go deeper, where the future is much brighter than the present. Jay Bruce, who was the minor league player of the year for 2007, is ready of the big time. Bruce has drawn comparisons to many All-Star caliber major leaguers, however we're probably two years away from prospects being touted as Bruce-like. When Bruce is a known future star, Chris Dickerson (shown) is a name lost in the fray. Dickerson blasted 14 home runs, drove in 55 runs, and stole 30 bases in 2007 for double A Chattanooga and triple A Louisville. Drew Stubbs is another outfielder who is knocking on the Redleg's door. While Stubbs spent most of the season with single A Dayton his age, 23, and his play, 12 homers, 43 RBI, 23 steals, and solid defense, paint a picture of a guy on the cusp. Bruce (21 at the season's start), Dickerson (24), and Stubbs are ready for their shot with the big club; for this reason the Reds have to look to trade Griffey, Hopper, and/or Freel. Trading veterans will free up spots for the younger guys as well as freeing up payroll to be spent on pitching and long-term contracts for the likes of Dunn and Brandon Phillips. Monday and Tuesday I'll look at the youth the Reds have in the infield and on the pitching staff.

Gloves

Hello all, I'm Tom and I'll be trying to help Adam out with this blog, giving my two cents whenever I can. I just started a new job, so I wanted to make a good impression. Good impressions do not include blogging from work while pouring over retrosheet data. My main goal is to educate and foster critical analysis of the Reds over the course of this blog. So here goes..

The glove, often overlooked in the clubhouse locker, is an integral part of the game of baseball. Most of the time its the bat that does the talking, gets people excited, and fattens the wallet. Fielding improves pitching, and wins more baseball games. I want to explore the fielding, and how the Reds' defense stacks up against other teams. For the most part when using figures I'll ignore the AL and their crazy DH and incompetent managers who can't pull off a nice double switch. The game is played differently in the AL, so when speaking of defensive metrics, I'll only use the NL.

Some basic knowledge to get down. Fielding % is the 3rd most useless statistic in baseball (behind pitching W-L and the RBI in my opinion), and I won't reference it to tout the laurels of a player, or detract from his abilities. I'll instead use some slightly newer metrics but still very viable.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR) is essentially the % of balls hit into a player's zone that he turns into outs. This doesn't take into account balls hit out of his zone, whether plays are made on them or not. Each position has the same size zone, which makes comparing across positions very easy. Brandon Phillips had the highest RZR among NL 2B last year, for those Hudson fans.

Outside of Zone (OOZ) is the number of outs made on balls outside of the player's specified zone. Balls that should fall for hits that are turned into outs comprise the OOZ number. OOZ is relative to innings, so keep that in mind. Orlando Hudson had the highest OOZ number amongst NL 2B last year.

The Reds had a team RZR of .812 and 338 OOZ plays. NL league average in both categories was .818 and 379 respectively. This doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know, the Reds are a below average defensive team. This is a glaring problem. Especially playing in GABP, you can't allow extra baserunners when those men are more likely to turn into runs for the opposing team. For those wondering, the best RZR was the Mets at .839 and the Braves made a whopping 454 plays outside of their zone. Both teams had winning records, needless to say. This means that the Mets on average fielded 2.7% more hit balls per player per position. That's an enormous difference over the course of a season. The Reds had the second worst RZR in the NL and the OOZ numbers were less than impressive, we all can agree they need to improve for 2008.

Individually, the Reds are very strong up the middle with both Gonzalez and Phillips playing with above average RZR and OOZ numbers. Hamilton has one of the highest RZR numbers in CF, while Freel has a very good OOZ number. These numbers agree pretty much with what you see with your naked eyes. Assuming no unforeseen moves, the Reds appear fairly set up the middle, with all four guys under contract next season. And these metrics don't even count the fantastic arms all three of the guys have.

At the corners is a different story. The platoon of Hatteberg/Conine was awful at 1b. Like David Ortiz awful, making 10% less plays in their zone than league average 1b. And don't even bring Derek Lee into the discussion, his defense blows them both out of the water. This looks to improve next season, and there is reason for hope. Joey Votto is likely to take over first base duties. Scouts say his defense is a "work in progress" but about average. He is a converted catcher and very athletic, so he has the potential to be much better defensively than the two-headed first basemen the Reds employed in 2007.

Edwin Encarnacion was vastly improved in 2007, especially once returning from his AAA stint. His plate patience was much better, and he finished the season with the highest batting average of any Reds regular. However, as bad as Conine/Hatteberg were, Encarnacion was much the same. He made a normal amount of outstanding plays outside his zone, but on average he made 8% less plays on balls in his zone. 2008 can only be an improvement. Double E is still young, and has the potential to be a league average 3B defensively. Ryan Zimmerman he will never be, but one can hope for middle of the road.

The corners in the outfield were an adventure to say the least. Griffey benefited health-wise in the move to RF, and he made some decent plays out there. His RZR was almost exactly league average, meaning he made the plays he was supposed to, the routine. However, his OOZ was one of the worst in the NL among everyday RF. For those wondering, the best statistical right fielder in the NL was former Dayton Dragon Austin Kearns. Too bad Kearns forgot his bat in 2006, posting only league average offensive numbers. Outlook for 2008.. bleak. Unless Griffey is moved (of which I'm a proponent), his Dr. Strangeglove act is only going to get worse. He showed a decent arm at times, even throwing a few guys out, but his legs aren't getting any quicker. If Griffey is traded, Hamilton would slide over to right, and the Reds would see a great improvement in overall team outfield defense, but that's unlikely to happen.

Now on to every one's favorite defensive player, the Big Donkey Adam Dunn. Donkey has been the butt of many jokes, especially at the hands of Marty Brennamen regarding his perceived lack of hustle in the field. Dunn was below average in 2007, but not as bad as people think. He made plays on 3% less balls in his zone than average, and about 4% less OOZ plays over NL left fielders. Those numbers aren't great, but they're not the butcher job being displayed at the infield corners. 2008 outlook, push. His defense improved in 2007, but I don't expect anything drastic to change. He'll never be average in LF, but that's not why he's on the roster.

The Reds need to look to improve their team defense in 2008 in order to be more successful. Under Mackanin, the team was seen taking fielding practice before a few games. Fielding practice is unheard of in MLB this day and age. It'd be nice to see more stress placed on it, but that is unlikely to happen. Instead, we as Reds fans can only hope for improvement from the young players and the aging players to just hold their ground. Remember, over thousands of innings of a baseball season, even a few percentage points of defensive improvement can mean the difference between the playoffs and being the Brewers.

A Little Help Dealing

Firstly I would like to welcome a good friend and baseball mastermind to the blog. Thomas Pfister shares my unhealthy love for baseball and the Reds. He is also well versed in statistics that you have never heard of. Hopefully Tom will be adding to the blog soon, in the meantime be sure to read (and add) the comments to see his viewpoints. If you read the comments from yesterday you saw a couple trade scenarios that Tom came up with. First there was Edwin Encarnacion for Yankees young (potential) stud Ian Kennedy. The AP reported that while in talks with the Florida Marlins (for Miguel Cabrera interestingly enough), Hank Steinbrenner made it clear that Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy were not on the table, especially for a position player. Granted, every player in baseball is on the table for the right price, also the Yankees would be fools not to give up Kennedy for Cabrera. That being said, if this deal could be finagled I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat. Eddie is an important piece for the Reds, but he could serve a greater good as trade bait. The Yankees need a 3rd baseman, Eddie is still very young (24), cheap (not that they care), and has huge upside. The second trade Tom came up with was Ken Griffey Jr. for Twins veteran Carlos Silva. I also like this move; with fan favorite Torii Hunter most likely out in Minnesota, Griffey would be an easy sell for the front office. The only hitch would be that from what I've read Silva is up for salary arbitration, however, even if he were given a pretty decent bump in pay he would still be a bargain. Silva eats innings (averaging over 190 during the last four seasons), is young (28), and durable (averages over 30 starts since 2004). As Reds fans we can be hesitant to trade favorites like Griffey or home grown players like Eddie, but in order to get on a winning track changes have to be made. Everyone is a fan favorite on a winning team.

The Kids Are Alright

I was enjoying the Hot Stove League radio program last night and have to mention something Thom Brennaman brought up. A caller asked what moves he would make if he were the Reds general manager. He first mentioned dangling Ken Griffey Jr. on the trade market. Not only do I agree, I think Wayne Krivsky should let it be known that unless no realistic offer is made Griffey will be moved. I appreciate what Griffey has done for baseball and more specifically for the Reds but there is no way they are going to sign him after the 2008 season so they should get something via a trade. Brad Lidge was traded yesterday and most people won't agree but I would have taken Brad Lidge for Griffey Jr. Brennaman also said that he would start a youth movement immediately. He spoke of an outfield of Adam Dunn in left, Josh Hamilton in center, and Jay Bruce in right. Jay Bruce may experience some growing pains at the plate from time to time, but he'll be an upgrade defensively and he's the future; not Hopper, not Freel, and not Griffey. Brennaman's infield was Edwin Encarnacion at 3rd, Alex Gonzalez at short, Brandon Phillips at 2nd, and Joey Votto at 1st. Great defense (and pretty darn good offense) up the middle and a good right and left handed bat at 3rd and 1st. Finally Thom's rotation would be Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and a pitcher the team would pick up before spring training. I'll go him one better, Matt Belisle would be my fifth starter (actually probably fourth; Cueto fifth). 2007 was Belisle's first full year as a starter and his numbers compare closely to Harang's first full season. The bullpen obviously needs work, but if David Weathers gives another season like 2007, Jared Burton and Bill Bray get a year better, and Gary Majewski can ever get healthy, the relievers aren't as bad as one may think. All in all I agree with Brennaman, with the talent the Reds have in triple-A and the disappointment of last season it is time to see what the young guys can do.

I'm Sorry...What!?

The latest Rawlings Gold Gloves were handed out yesterday evening and it's more obvious than ever that the voters are getting painfully lazy. Greg Maddux check, Ichiro check, Andruw Jones check, Torii Hunter check, Orlando Hudson check- umm huh? The same Orlando Hudson that plays second base for the Diamondbacks? Don't get me wrong "O-Dog" is a very good player but I thought the Gold Glove for second base had already been engraved with the name of Brandon Phillips. There are many considerations that go into the Gold Gloves, let's go through them. 1. Defense- Should be most important. O-Dog's fielding percentage for 2007 was .985, very respectable. Phillips fielding percentage was .990 (actually a little higher when you consider his time at shortstop where he was flawless). Point Phillips. 2. Offense- Probably is the most important to voters. Hudson's numbers- batting average .294, home runs 10. RBI 63, stolen bases 10. Phillips numbers- batting average .288, home runs 30, RBI 94, stolen bases 32. Point Phillips (big time). 3. Team success- Perhaps taken too much into consideration. Hudson's D-Backs made an (short) appearance in the NLCS. The Reds were out of it after the second game of the season. Point Hudson. And the 2007 Rawlings Gold Glove goes to (drum roll please) Orlando Hudson? For shame.

Hot Stove Cooking

What can we expect from the Reds in 2008? Another sub .500 season? Another second half collapse? A winning record perhaps? How about the World Series? No? I realize fans in Cincinnati have low expectations for the Redlegs but if you breakdown the talent around the National League you would have to at least put them in the top half, and if you consider what they have available in triple-A maybe higher. That being said the roster needs a little tweaking. For everyone who loves Jeff Keppinger and Norris Hopper and hates Adam Dunn bear with me and think big picture. Sign Dunn long term. Do it now and if anything you can continue to root for Brandon Phillips, because if it weren't for the protection Dunn gives him, Phillips would be Pokey Reese. Next you have to look to move Keppinger, Hopper, and/or Ryan Freel. I would prefer to keep Freel out of this bunch because he is a known commodity, Keppinger and Hopper gave us nice moments last year but there is a reason they are career minor leaguers. Trade them for relief pitching only, there is no way we could get even a fifth starter for them. It's time to shop Ken Griffery Jr. hard. Don't give him away, but be rational about his value. Try to find a left-handed starter or a dependable reliever. Last off season the Mets traded Heath Bell to the Padres for Ben Johnson(one RBI in nine games) and John Adkins(didn't make the roster). Bell posted a 2.02 era in 93.2 innings. There is no reason Griffey couldn't fetch a pitcher of the ilk. Lastly, do not trade the likes of Josh Hamilton and Jay Bruce unless the names Willis or more preferably Santana are involved. Please leave a comment and check in tomorrow.

Opening Day

This is a blog for anyone who has an opinion of the Cincinnati Reds. I hope fans will read and leave their thoughts on the team or my viewpoints. I will criticize and praise moves the team makes, I will give you moves that I think they should make, and I will give you back stories of players and coaches. During the season I will recap games and look ahead to upcoming match ups. Check daily for updates. Thank you, Adam