Fair Trade?

As you may have been able to tell, Josh Hamilton was traded during the time I was writing the last entry. I have let it sink in a little and after listening to many angry Reds fans I have still yet to form a strong opinion on the deal. It seems most fans in Cincinnati are up in arms and I can understand where they are coming from. Josh Hamilton could become one of the best all-around players in the game, if he ever plays a full season he should be an obvious All-Star and possible MVP candidate. And, although we hear about Cincy having a logjam in the outfield, I'm not sure I agree. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. are in the last year of their contracts (I know Grif has an option) and I'm pretty sure Dunn will stay but that still only gives us he and Jay Bruce for 2009. Also, this Edinson Volquez is anything but a sure thing. Volquez was the diamond in the Rangers system two years ago, but after an injury and several road blocks Volquez became an expendable player for a pitcher-starved franchise. However, Wayne Krivsky has a number of reasons to be optimistic about this trade. Josh Hamilton was riddled with injury in 2007, and it wasn't like it was one thing that kept nagging him, one week it was one thing, the next week it was something else. Another point for the GM is that when Hamilton has a great bat, he is left-handed like Adam Dunn, Griffey, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Scott Hatteberg. Finally the strongest argument anyone in favor of this deal would have would be summed up in the position these guys play. While I don't personally buy the "too many outfielders" argument, one can't deny the Reds have too little pitching. If the Reds don't land Erik Bedard (which I don't think they will at this point) they can go into Spring Training with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo set in their rotation and Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Matt Belisle, Matt Maloney, and Edinson Volquez competing for the final three spots. And trust me, that would be much, much better than those they had competing last season.

Extra Points

Just a couple things to think about as you wonder if the Reds are going to end 2007 without another major move. I was listening to Marty and Thom do the Reds Hot Stove League last night and they talked about the obvious things; steriods, Joe Nuxhall, trades, etc. Marty did make one interesting point, he voiced his concern about the Reds lack off a leadoff hitter. It is easy to look at the line up and think that the Reds are set and possibly over-set at each position. But, while it's nice to give Josh Hamilton 5 at bats each game, he is a prototypical three hole hitter. And don't give me the Norris Hopper noise, I like Hopper, I really do, but he is most valuable to the Reds as a bench guy (I watched first hand as he beat the D-Backs with an 8th inning pinch hit). Even if Hopper were starting he's more of a 7th or 8th spot guy. Unfortunately, this need usually gets over looked. It is certainly not as important as another starter, but just think if they had a .400+ obp guy who could steal 50 bases hitting ahead of Phillips, Hamilton, Dunn, and Griffey. The only thing the Reds would possibly do about this problem would be start Jay Bruce. Grady Sizemore very successfully leads off for the Indians and one unnamed scout from an American League team said Jay Bruce is a lot like Sizemore, just better, at everything. Also I read on ESPN.com that a beat writer for the Baltimore Orioles said that a deal for Erik Bedard most likely will happen, but not until January. There have been reports that the Reds will use Edinson Volquez, the new pitcher they got for Josh Hamilton, as another piece to acquire Bedard. If Volquez/Votto/and Bailey is on the table for Erik Bedard I'm not sure what Baltimore is waiting for. Tomorrow I will look deeper into the Hamilton trade.

Closing In On Jared Burton

An e-mail sent to me from Tom: Yo, I'm working on an article for the sight comparing the pitch f/x data that charts the movement on pitches and allows you to compare pitchers and their pitches. The system was installed in a portion of MLB parks last year, and its used on the GameCast on MLB.com to help show what type of pitch was thrown. Well, I've been analyzing Jared Burton especially, and it turns out he throws an almost exact Mariano Rivera cutter. They both get hit harder by righties than lefties as well, which accounts for the cutter moving in on lefties and away from righties. Whether he knows he's throwing this pitch or not, I'm not sure. I haven't heard it mentioned on anything I've seen about the Reds or by Marty or anyone. But this certainly bodes very well for the future of Burton, if he can throw this pitch consistently and he actually knows what he's doing. This information is obviously exciting for several reasons. Francisco Cordero is going to be the Reds closer (barring injury) for the next three years. Cordero has a very good track record, but the batters in the NL Central have seen him. I'm not suggesting I think he will be a flash in the pan, but closers not named Rivera or Hoffman come with a limited shelf-life. Jared Burton should be poised to take over the job if Cordero's arm falls off in spring training. I have been saying that Burton should keep his position as set up man in 2008 so he remains used to pressure situations and because of Stormy's ability to pitch with runners on will better serve the team in early innings. This information Tom offers gives us hope that these plans for Burton can take place. Hopefully he doesn't go to the same shrink as Todd Coffey.

Next Steps?

Dan Haren is gone (to Arizona) and with each passing day it seems that Erik Bedard is getting further and further out of reach. The fact that Haren fetched six player doesn't really bode well for the Reds' attempt to acquire Bedard. Although they have a decent haul to offer (Homer Bailey, Joey Votto/ Josh Hamilton, and another prospect), it would be difficult and possibly wasteful for the Reds to find six guys to send to Baltimore. Nashville native and Kentucky alum, Joe Blanton is the new name on the block. It is not completely clear whether A's GM Billy Beane is willing to part with Blanton, but everyone has a price. Blanton's price would be considerably lower than that of Haren and Bedard. If the Reds could pull off a deal for Blanton without Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this would be the best offseason of my life. It may not be possible, but perhaps Joey Votto paired with Josh Hamilton or Edwin Encarnacion and a prospect or two could entice Oakland. Josh Hamilton would be a huge upgrade over Mark Kotsay in centerfield, Eddie would be an affordable replacement to a soon-to-be-traded Eric Chavez, and while Daric Barton has high hopes in Oakland, Joey Votto would certainly play over Travis Buck in left field. I'm not sure I would do it, but if the Reds were to offer Homer Bailey up for Joe Blanton this deal could get done in no time. While Blanton is a horse (230 innings last season), he really isn't an ace, in fact the Reds would probably place him after Bronson Arroyo. It's a tough call trading a prized prospect for a known commodity. If it were straight up Blanton for Bailey I think I'd do it. Keeping Eddie is important because he's a righty and young, keeping Hamilton is important because he can play right next year when Jay Bruce is full-time centerfielder, and keeping Votto is important because Scott Hatteberg won't be playing forever. It will be interesting to see what happens. I know Wayne Krivsky wants to acquire another starter, but I also appreciate him not dealing away the team's future for one guy.

The Mitchell Retort

I spent the good part of yesterday afternoon and evening skimming the Mitchell Report and I must say, I want my time back. There were no big names on that list that I hadn't heard whispers about for years. Hal Morris was a little surprising, but I assume he is on the report because of his days with the Yankees. Speaking of the Yanks, it's a little odd how George Mitchell, who holds an official position with the Red Sox, was able to come up with so many Yankees and so little from other teams. The report read more like a 400 page D.A.R.E. handbook than a quasi-legal document. We know drugs are bad. There are some really good things for a Reds fan to take away from the report. Mike Stanton is the only active Red on the list. Mike Stanton? Quite possibly the worst guy on the team? Dude, when did you get off the juice? At least we can say 'well our team sucks because nobody is on steroids'. I have never once thought of Adam Dunn as a user, but with so many home runs in his young career I'm sure there have been suspicions. The fact that Dunn wasn't names, but has faced pitchers who were, just makes his accomplishments that much better. Honestly the whole thing is pretty pointless. The most that will come out of it will be a few suspensions here and there, but it's still one man's word against anothers. I heard yesterday that one player who's name is on the list for a returned check written to Radomski (the Mets clubhouse guy), was able to prove that check was written for the clubhouse attendants to buy pizza. Checks are another thing. What kind of guy buys drugs with a check? I'm not going to say it didn't happen, but a good many of those names came from check copies and I don't think very many people are that careless. I don't know; this is all I'll write about the Mitchell Report, but it is the biggest news in baseball right now, so I though I'd mention it.

Swap Meet

Well, it looks like Wayne Krivsky may not be willing to wait around for Erik Bedard. There have been several reports coming out of Cincinnati and the Bay Area linking the Reds to much heralded Dan Haren. I can't express who much I love Krivsky's fortitude. He knows that when Johan Santana finally gets dealt it will only be a matter of time before Bedard and Haren are sent packing. The fact that the Reds are in on both Bedard and Haren tells me that Krivsky is pretty sure they are in a good position to acquire one. If one guy is moved to a team other than the Reds it leaves Wayne as the front runner for the other. This leaves a fellow like to me consider the pros and cons of each player. Dan Haren is 27 and will be rather affordable the next couple years. He started the All-Star Game in 2007, ahead of Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia. Haren is consistent, he pitched over 215 innings for three straight years, logged 34 starts in that span, and won 14, 14, and 15 games. My personal favorite thing about Dan Haren possibly becoming a Red would be facing Tony LaRussa. Mr. Baseball wasn't too excited about trading Haren for Mark Mulder in 2005, so it would be great to see Haren mow down that so-called lineup. Erik Bedard's biggest pro is his left arm. Bedard is also pretty young 28, but would command a pay increase sooner than Haren. Bedard faces better hitters day in day out in the A.L. East, but has never logged 200 innings. The final strike against Bedard is he is without a sweet beard, Haren on the other hand rocks a powerful mane. Bedard is still probably Krivsky's first choice, but he has put himself in great position to start 2008 with another starter.

Hold On A Second

John Fay, Reds beat writer, reported the end of last week that a deal between the Reds and Orioles involving Erik Bedard and Homer Bailey is still on the table. Fay mentions that Joey Votto and another prospect would be involved. Since the Orioles completely suck and have a need at basically every position you may be able to insert Edwin Encarnacion or Josh Hamilton in place of Joey Votto. With that being said I think I'll take this opportunity to change my stance on Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton. It seems there are more than a few in the Reds organization who believe Josh Hamilton would best serve the team as trade bait. Is Hamilton ever going to be able to really fully recover athletically? I'll say now that Hamilton at 27 in May, with the questions is on the same trade plain with Joey Votto at 23. With Jay Bruce and to a lesser extent Chris Dickerson waiting for their opportunities at the majors, even with his extreme abilities,Hamilton could be traded. Back to Bedard. If the Reds could pull this deal off by sending Homer Bailey, Votto (or Eddie or Hamilton), and a minor leaguer that isn't Bruce or Johnny Cueto I'd be pleased as punch. I would then, reasonably would expect Bob Castellini to pony up the money to keep Bedard in Cincy for several years. These two things would have to happen (no Cueto and no Bruce and extension) for me to support this trade. I think if the Reds are man enough it could happen. Votto and Bailey give the Orioles two big pieces to sell their fans and trade in four years. And imagine the rotation for the Reds. Aaron Harang, Erik Bedard, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Belisle, and Johnny Cueto. If a team would have to face Harang and Bedard to open a series they would strike out so many times that by the time game three rolls around Arroyo would be able to confuse hitters to no end. With a line up of (assuming Hamilton is the one moved) Jay Bruce leading off (for lack of a better option), Brandon Phillips two, Adam Dunn, Eddie, Griffey Jr. Alex Gonzalez, Joey Votto, and David Ross catching. Merged with an improved bullpen I like this team's chances in a league that produced the Colorado Rockies in 2007.

Upon Further Review

Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone and the Reds have nothing to show for the week's work. Yet, we should not fret, a move could still be made between today and Spring Training. I have to say I'm a little disappointed Wayne Krivsky didn't come away with another starter, but I am glad he didn't mortgage the future for a four of five guy. They did pick up a guy in the Rule 5 draft; Sergio Valenzuela will most likely be fighting for a spot in the bullpen come Feburary. Valenzuela is a 23 year old, righty who is doing very well in winter league play, but doesn't have much else on his resume. But somebody saw something in him, so let us cross our collective fingers and hope for Jared Burton part two. What I want to touch on today is the notorious trade that went down between the Reds and Nationals in 2006. Cincinnati was up in arms when their native son (Austin Kearns), heir apparent to Barry Larkin (Felipe Lopez), and first-round pick (Ryan Wagner) were traded to evil Jim Bowden. Not only was it heartbreaking to see those players go, who did the Reds get in return? Royce Clayton!!!! Are you kidding me?! Well, I am, as I'm sure you are, glad to see Royce Clayton out of town. Brenden Harris was another piece that has been shipped out. Harris had a decent season with the Devil Rays in 2007, and while the Reds don't need a starting middle infielder, it wouldn't hurt to have Harris as a backup. Oh well. Gary Majewski and Bill Bray were supposed to fill right in the bullpen and change the season. Majewski was alleged to be damaged goods and may never recover, but if he ever does return to his best form he'll make the Reds pen one of the elite. Bray is still young, 24, and left-handed so he will be forgiven for his sub-par numbers last season. While with the Nationals, Bray's face was plastered all over press releases, so as far as the Nats I think Bray was the biggest piece they gave up. But none of these names are who I find intriguing. Daryl Thompson is the last, long forgotten piece of this deal. I personally watched one of Thompson's five starts in Low-A Dayton last year, and I can say without hesitation if he progress as he should, he will be in the majors in a couple seasons. Thompson, who just celebrated his 22nd birthday, had 14 wins against 5 loses between Low and High-A baseball while posting an ERA of 3.18. He pitched 133 innings and gave up 122 hits, only 33 walks, and struck out 121. If he can make the bigs by 2009 to fill out a rotation of Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and himself, Daryl Thompson will most certainly be the biggest piece of that trade.......for both sides.

The Krivsky House Rules

You know, as a Reds fan I should probably not take much stock in what I read. While doing this blog, half of the deals I come up with are reports I've read and the other half are just thoughts and day dreams I have. As it turns out, they are both equally inaccurate. GM Wayne Krivsky is in Nashville for the Winter Meetings but he most certainly left the lock box that holds the key to his bolted mouth in Cincinnati. If I've learned anything from the 14 or so months he has been the Reds general manager, it should be that Krivsky is prone to making deals out of the blue and he keeps them as close to the vest as possible. I read today that the Reds are interested in Blue Jays right fielder Alex Rios. Rios is good, probably a little overrated, but he is a righty with a little pop, which is a need. However, if the rumors are true that the Giants may be offering up Tim Lincecum for him, I hope the Reds are just in it for fun. Homer Bailey would probably be the closest thing the Reds have to Lincecum, and it would be foolish to give up a potential ace for a guy who is a little better than Austin Kearns. I am, however, a little worried about trading away all our offense for pitching; I have no problem with trading Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, or even Adam Dunn, but only one of them. Now, if we could get anything for Ken Griffey Jr., Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, or Jeff Keppinger I'd pull that trigger for all of them. But who knows what's going through that balding head of Krivsky's, chances are good he will come through with a deal nobody has thought of, hopefully it will be worthwhile. I would almost bet at this point Krivsky is happy to wait and let teams come to him, or at least wait for Johan Santana to be traded which could possibly open the trading flood gates.

Wells, Wells, Wells

It's reported that the Reds have talked to the agent of David Wells. Wells spent a little time with the Reds in the nineties but was only in town long enough for a slight boon for the local bars. I guess for a one year deal I wouldn't be opposed to this signing, Wells is a lefty which is a need and he did pitch 157 innings last season which isn't bad for a fifth starter (he would be the fifth starter no matter where he's put in the rotation). I would only make this deal if it were cheap (probably incentive laden), Wells will be 45 and looks to be ready for his first heart attack. There have also been several reports that the Reds have slight interest in Glendon Rusch. This has to be a joke, and if it is it's a pretty good one. See, the Astros and Cardinals have also shown interest in Rusch (who really, really sucks for those of you who don't remember), perhaps Krivsky is just jacking up his price for division rivals. Glendon Rusch to the Cards could be the best move the Reds make this off season. Although the Reds don't have much money it was a little disappointing to see David Riske sign with the Brewers for such a small amount (3 years $13 million). It looks like the Reds have turned a considerable amount of attention to Erik Bedard. John Fay of the Cincy Inquirer has mentioned the Orioles are looking at Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and other unamed prospect. It would be tough, but if the Redlegs could pound out a 3 to 5 year deal with Bedard before the trade I would be willing to part with Bailey and Votto. Jon Lieber is another name the Reds have thrown out. Just because he shuts down the Reds on a regular basis doesn't make him an All-Star, just ask the Pirates staff. I think I'd rather stand pat than sign Lieber. Lastly, there is a rumor about Josh Hamilton to the Rays, but nothing has come of it yet. With the trade of Buck Coats to the Blue Jays and the release of Jorge Cantu the Reds have an open roster spot so expect something.

A San Francisco Treat?

It has been whispered that the Reds and Giants have been in talks about the Giants young potential ace Tim Lincecum. The name the Giants keep bringing up is Jay Bruce and hopefully at that point Krivsky either turns their attention to any other player or turns his back and leaves the room. Lincecum is more than likely going to be a stud as soon as next year, but with Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto holding that kind of potential I would hate to see the Reds trade away their best offensive (and defensive) prospect. Now the Giants do need young bats and they have been reported to be interested in Edwin Encarnacion so I wouldn't expel all rumors of a deal with San Fran. Perhaps since they have an obscene amount of starting pitching Eddie could fetch more from the Giants than he could elsewhere. As I am writing this I'm reading such a notion from Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. Crasnick also mentions the possibility of the Cubs wanting Josh Hamilton for Sean Marshall. I pray this deal doesn't happen; it reeks of Dave Williams. This has no merit, but I think Krivsky should do what he can to trade Norris Hopper to the Nationals. Jim Bowden seems to be a little trade happy and reportedly has an interest in moving Jon Rauch and Chad Cordero. Bowden loves Reds players maybe he'd like Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper for Jon Rauch. Sadly, I think he'd make that deal. One last note on Dontrelle Willis, it turns out the Marlins would want Homer Bailey and to that I say forget it. The Winter Meetings are so exciting, this is like an early Christmas. Even if no deals get done at least it's fun to talk about.

Talkin' 'Bout Willis

Two reports (SI.com and ESPN.com) have the Reds interested in Marlin's ace Dontrelle Willis. It seems the Marlins might be interested in several Reds for several different reasons. 1. Josh Hamilton- The Fish have been without a legit center fielder since Juan Pierre and Hamilton fits everything the Marlins look for; young, cheap, and unsightly talented. 2. Edwin Encarnacion- Florida will most likely say goodbye to their only offensive force in third baseman Miguel Cabrera. Eddie also fits the mold. 3. Homer Bailey- This piece would make the deal happen. Homer has the potential to be an ace and would be a perfect trading piece for the Marlins in four years. 4. Johnny Cueto- See Homer Bailey. 5. Joey Votto- Like Hamilton and Encarnacion, Votto would give the Fish a bat, something they are desperately missing. As much as I'd like to see Willis in Cincinnati on Opening Day, I'm not sure I'd give up the farm to make it happen. Its true that Dontrelle is a couple years removed from 22 wins, but he has quickly regressed since. Willis was 3rd in the NL last season with 15 losses and 87 walks, while giving up a career high 29 home runs. For those very reasons he comes at a price the Reds can pay and any time a 25 year old lefty with Cy Young stuff can be attained I have a hard time turning my back..........so I'm not sure where I stand. I know personally I would not give up Bailey or Cueto. Although one young pitcher would have to go, I would do what I could to make the deal and keep Homer and Johnny. I would give two out of Hamilton, Votto, and Encarnacion, but it would be doubtful that the Marlins would bite even if a single A prospect were involved. Tomorrow I'll touch on the reports of Tim Lincecum to the Reds.

Donkey Bigger In Texas?

First of all I want you all to read the comments Tom made to my last entry. He brought up several interesting points about acquiring Scott Kazmir. I read earlier that the Texas Rangers have an interest in Adam Dunn. This makes sense for the Rangers, they lost an outfielder in Gary Matthews Jr. last season and they missed out on Torii Hunter this year. The question is; can Texas make this deal worth while for the Reds? The answer.......probably not. I know, even after all my attempts to sway you, there are many of you that would trade Dunn for a pouch of Big League Chew, which, ironically would be about the best the Rangers could offer. I would only trade Dunn for a major league ready ace and honestly the Rangers don't have a starter worthy the title of goat. Turns out these wacky texans also have an interest in Josh Hamilton but considering we were just discussing giving Hamilton in a package to acquire Scott Kazmir, the Rangers have their work cut out for them. Lastly, there have been reports that the Reds may be interested in signing Matt Clement, which makes sense considering the Dusty Baker connection. I have to be honest, I've never been a fan of Clement. I think he had a good deal of talent which never really translated into wins, but with that being said, if his price tag is reasonable ($5 million in this market), I wouldn't be opposed to signing Clement. It is quite possible he has matured and has learned how to pitch without getting injured or step outside without having an asthma attack (see Chicago 2002-2004). And maybe, just maybe being set behind Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and hopefully somebody else will take much of the comeback pressure off Clement. Winter meetings start tomorrow so be sure to check in for the latest news.

Trade Or Sign

I had a conversation with Tom over the weekend and he brought up Matt Garza and the chances the Reds had of landing him. Well, Garza was traded to the Rays for Delmon Young. Both of these players are highly touted for their potential and even though pitchers are far more valuable, I think the Twins got the better of this deal. Back to the Reds, it is obvious that Garza is history, but I wonder if this trade might open the door to a possible Scott Kazmir trade. The Rays still have an abundance of young outfielders so they probably would have not interest in re-acquiring Josh Hamilton. However, if the Rays are smart (which if an if), they will be looking to move Carlos Pena, hopefully for pitching. Pena, who will turn 30 next season, had a career year in 2007, mashing 46 homers and driving in 121 runs. Pena hadn't sniffed 30 home runs prior to 2007 and has been tossed about like a burning coal between 5 teams over his career. Pena made $800,000 last years and would be a bargain for a team looking for a power bat. If Pena is moved the Reds should swoop in with Joey Votto and Homer Bailey and see if they can sweet talk Scott Kazmir away from the Rays. I can hear people saying, 'Adam are you crazy? Homer Bailey is our future and Joey Votto has the potential to be a perennial all-star!' I may be crazy but Bailey is in the future and as it has been said, who knows what the future will bring. Kazmir posted two seasons of a sub-3.50 era in the best offensive division in baseball, while striking out 239 batters in 2007. If some one might ask, 'why would you include Votto in this deal?' well the sad truth is the Reds don't have one player worth Scott Kazmir, and as I've said before, Votto is much more valuable as a trade piece than a first baseman. Teaming Kazmir with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo would give the Reds the best 1-2-3 punch in the National League. The Reds have the pieces to make a playoff run next year, but without another reliable starter the chances of them making the World Series is slim. The chances of them signing that reliable starter are actually slimmer. Carlos Silva is basically the only player who would fall under that category, but his price tag is going to be much too high. I do believe whole-heartedly that Krivsky will make a move for a starter and if he is willing to part with Votto, Hamilton, Bailey (only for a proven ace), and even Adam Dunn, the chances are better we fans get a winning product on the field in 2008. *One more note to Bionic 1 who left a comment on the last post. I can't agree with your view on the Reds ("the Reds suck") but I do, however, share your thoughts on Ms. Clinton. And I thank you for reading the blog, if you ever have any suggestions on how the Reds could be more like the Yankees please let me know.......you know aside from the $200 million payroll.

A Closer Look

So what does the Francisco Cordero signing mean big picture? Well, it gives the Reds the best closer in the NL Central. St. Louis closer Jason Isringhausen has had a very good career, and even had a nice bounce back year last season, but one would be foolish to take him over Cordero at this point in their careers. Matt Capps in Pittsburgh could end up having a decent career as a closer but it is much too early to tell, and chances are, if he does turn out to be dominant, he won't spend much time as a Pirate. If the Cubs stay with Ryan Dempster they will be luckily to return to the playoffs. Chad Qualls will most likely be the closer next season for the Astros. Qualls had a decent season in 2007, but will have to prove himself without Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler with him in the pen. The poor Brewers are lost for a closer. With Cordero in Cincy, Derrick Turnbow is next in line and that's good news......for everyone but the Brewers. More than the closer, the Cordero move helps the entire pen. Last season's laughing stock, the bullpen in 2008 could possibly be a strength. If David Weathers, Jared Burton, and Cordero can repeat their performances from 2007 and Dusty Baker can plug them in during the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings respectively on a consistent basis, it could be the difference between 72 and 90 and the playoffs. Hopefully, that trio will make things easier for the likes of Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, and Todd Coffey. And if all my dreams come true perhaps the team can send a hat around the clubhouse to collect $2 million so the Reds can eat Mike Stanton's contract.

Thanks Bob

Even if you are a die-hard Reds fan and are only used to let down and disappointment you have to be encouraged by the signing of Francisco Cordero. I know what most Reds fans will say; we over paid. The truth is we might have, but perhaps not, the only thing that really matters is Cordero will be wearing a wishbone 'C' hat on opening day. As fans, we hear about Cincinnati being a small market and how the team needs to be careful inking big contracts, but when it is all said and done its Bob Castellini's money. Castellini can spend whatever, whenever he wants, he can make the team's payroll $100 million if he wants. The Reds needed bullpen help especially in the back end and Castellini went out and got the best guy on the market. After the first wave of excitement, I got to sit back and think of the trickle down effect this will have for the Reds. -Derrick Turnbow will be the closer for the Brewers. Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, David Ross, Jeff Keppinger (and I could go on) can't wait for the first series with the Brew Crew. -Bronson Arroyo may actually get 15 wins. After two pretty solid years Bronson can sit back and watch Todd Coffey stay seated in the pen. -Aaron Harang will finally get the national publicity he deserves. I don't see 18-20 wins being out of the question. -Jared Burton and David Weathers can remain and return to positions of comfort. Burton should most likely stay pitching the eighth and hope last season wasn't a fluke. While Stormy should pitch the sixth and seventh innings especially when starters strand runners. I was discussing this deal with my friend and blog contributor, Tom, and he mentioned that a big free agent reliver signing could mean other things to come (see 2005 Blue Jays). If this is true I'd still like to see Joey Votto moved for a starter, but I think in the coming weeks we could see Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips sign extensions. It would be nice to see a closer, three starters, and several offensive pieces signed for a number of years.

Reds Base(ball)

Okay, okay. I know several people have accused me of trading the entire roster on this blog. Let me start by saying that as much as I love the Reds they have sucked for seven years so trading everyone couldn't be that bad. Yet it is true, there are a few base players the organization should keep. Adam Dunn is one guy who has value unlike any player on the roster. Not only has he put up numbers unmatched by any Red in history, but when Ken Griffey Jr. leaves at the end of this season (or before) Dunn gives the marketing department a star to sell. Say what you will, but behind Griffey, you see more number 44 jerseys in Great American than any other. Fans complain about Dunn because they feel he should play Gold Glove defense and they suggest replacing him with Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel. I don't have time to list all the reasons why that would be a horrible idea, but I'll list a few. Dunn has more talent in one finger than Freel and Hopper have combined. Hopper is a career minor leaguer and has been shipped from the majors back to the minors, while the Reds couldn't call Dunn up fast enough and have never sent him back down. For people who gripe about Dunn's strike outs; if Freel could ever stay healthy enough to play a full season he would strike out at least as many times, and he is a leadoff hitter. Lastly, Dunn is younger than both Freel and Hopper. After Dunn, but in no order, I'd put Josh Hamilton and Jay Bruce. I put them together because they both are young outfielders who, in a matter of years, could very possibly be the two best in the National League. Hamilton and Bruce could be expected to post .300 batting averages, 30+ home runs, 90+ rbi, and Gold Glove caliber defense. I dream of a year that sees Hamilton and Bruce one and two in the MVP voting. Brandon Phillips is the only infielder in the organization that I would peg as a keeper. At 26 Phillips (while being protected by Dunn mind you) posted Barry Larkin-type numbers while playing Barry Larkin-type defense. Pitching is a different bear. The Reds will always be in need of pitching, but it doesn't mean they should hold on to seventh inning relievers or 4th or 5th starters. I wouldn't trade Aaron Harang because I could get a better pitcher in return. An All-star bat doesn't equal Harang. I would keep Homer Bailey close unless I could get a proven number one for him. Since those chances are slim Bailey is a keeper. Johnny Cueto is a keeper because nobody knows what he'll become so nobody would be willing to give equal value. There is really on one in the bullpen I wouldn't trade if the right offer came up, but I'd need a proven starter or dependable reliever for a few. Jared Burton is the most important member of the pen going into 2008. If Burton becomes the closer he has the ability to, he'll solidify once shaky ground. Bill Bray is a guy I put just under Burton. I would try to groom Bray as the set-up man for 2008. Jon Coutlangus, Marcus McBeth, and Gary Majewski are guys who could go either way. All three could become important cogs in the relief corp or they could all three be gone this time next year. So there you go, a list of guys I would like to see around for a while. Making out this list makes me more encouraged for the team's future. You will notice though, I didn't use the word "untradable", there is nobody in baseball that is untradable if the offer is right.

Fast Eddie

With so many teams this off season looking for a third baseman Edwin Encarnacion could turn out to be the poor man's Miguel Cabrera. It is obvious now that Alex Rodriguez is staying with the Yankees, so if the Reds were to trade him, I'd put Eddie behind Miggy as third basemen on the market. Eric Chavez is also being talked about, but with his history of injury and bulky contract, I think Eddie is more valuable. Teams seem to be mortgaging their futures for Cabrera. The Dodgers may offer Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and Clayton Kershaw, while the Angels could ante up Ervin Santana, Howie Kendrick, Chris Bootcheck, and Nick Adenhart.Let me now say that Miggy does have considerably more talent and value than Eddie, but I would honestly take Clayton Kershaw straight up for Encarnacion. Kershaw is a big (6'4'' 215 lbs), young (19)lefthander who has done nothing but mow down the competition. If I were the Dodgers I'm not sure I'd even make that trade, but if they are willing to offer LaRoche and Kemp along with Kershaw for Cabrera, I think the Reds should look into it. And as far as the Angels go I would take Nick Adenhart for Eddie. Adenhart posted a 3.65 era in double A last season, he struck out 116 to 65 walks and most importantly he only allowed 7 home runs in 153 innings. At 21 Adenhart would fit nicely behind Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Homer Bailey and could possibly develop into a solid third starter, and a third starter sounds really good for Edwin.

Trade Winds

Today Jon Garland was traded to the Angels for shortstop Orlando Cabrera. It would have been nice for the Reds to get an arm like Garland however, this whole thing could turn out better for the home team. If it is true that the team's payroll will only be increased by about 6 six million there is no way the Reds will be able to sign a free agent starter worth signing. This means Wayne Krivsky should really look into trading for a second or third starter. Now that Garland is with the Angels there is no question that they are looking to unload a starter. Garland, John Lackey, and Kelvim Escobar are most likely not on the market. The Angels would more than likely love to see a team make an offer for Ervin Santana because any pitcher with a home era of 3.27 and a road era of 8.38 has something wrong above the neck. We'll know how much the Angels want a bat if they put Jared Weaver on the trade block. Weaver had a slight fall off last season, but finished with 13 wins and an era under four. If the Reds were to show interest in Weaver the Angels would more than likely ask for Dunn at which time the Reds would laugh and offer Joey Votto (and maybe throw in Chris Dickerson). I would make this trade if I were the Reds, I probably wouldn't if I were the Angels but it never hurts to ask. While we're on the topic of teams in California with a wealth of young pitching and a need for bats, let's bring in the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have no less than four pitchers that would be the second best if they were to be slipped into the Reds rotation. San Fran has also expressed interest in Dunn and, as important as Dunn is to the team, the Giants have a couple names that might interest me. Tim Lincecum would be a guy I would take for Dunn straight up. Noah Lowry and Matt Cain would be acceptable pieces for Dunn, but I'd need a little more. If I were Krivsky I would again use Joey Votto as a piece to try and pry Lowry or Cain from the Giants. If Votto alone didn't work I'd try to come up with a blockbuster type deal sending Votto packaged with either Ken Griffey Jr. or Edwin Encarnacion and inquire about a minor league reliever to add with Lowry or Cain. The truth is, the Reds have plenty of offensive pieces in Dunn, Josh Hamilton, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce going into 2008, making guys like Eddie, Votto, and Griffey more valuable as trade bait.

Thanks For The Memories

Thanks to my father, the summers of my youth revolved around Reds games on the radio. Marty Brennaman and Joe Nuxhall gave me some of the best memories of my life and I didn't even realize it. Looking back on it Marty and "the old left-hander" made it easy for young boys and old men to continue loving the Reds through the lean years. Hamilton native, Joe Nuxhall died last night at the age of 79 following his bout with cancer. Nationally, Nuxhall was probably best known for being the youngest player in baseball history. The story goes that Reds scouts were sent to check out Nuxhall's father and ended up with Joe. On June 10th, 1944, with the team's roster depleted from WW II, Joe appeared in relief at the age of 15. He retired the first two batters but was rattled when Stan Musial came to the plate, Joe surrendered a line drive single to Musial and was unable to record another out. Nuxhall won 135 games in his 16 year career. In 1967 Joe became the voice of the Reds, and when he teamed up with Brennaman in 1974, the two became heroes in Cincinnati. Nuxhall and Brennaman called three world series titles and five National League pennants. Marty was known for brash, controversial comments while Joe was always pleasant and agreeable. One moment, however, will live in infamy in Cincinnati and the commissioner's office. In 1988 Marty, Joe, and Pete Rose (who was playing) disagreed with a call umpire Dave Pallone undoubtedly blew and while Rose was screaming and chest bumbing Pallone, the announcers encouraged fans to throw trash onto the field. Nuxhall and Brennaman were both suspended by commissioner Bart Giamatti, making them legends in the field. Perhaps the most unfortunate aspect of Nuxhall's passing is that he is again a finalist for the Ford Frick award. The award, which has been bestowed on Brennaman, is an announcer's ticket to the Hall of Fame. So on this day when the baseball news is filled with greedy, attention grabbing children and medically enhanced ogres, let us reflect on a man who's 63 year relationship with one organization should be commended. Joe Nuxhall is finally "rounding third and heading for home".

Comic Relief

Funny? Maybe. Disgraceful? Certainly. Improved? Quite possibly. The Reds 2007 bullpen was at times as comfortable to watch as some blind guy pulling your teeth with rusty pliers. But fear not, Aaron Harang could get those 20 victories he deserves in 2008 if a few simple moves are made. Although the pen was the worst part about 2007 it will be easier to fix than the starting rotation. First Jared Burton should be the closer from day one. David Weathers has done a valiant job the last couple years, but he would be the first to tell you he's not a closer. Burton has the stuff to be a closer and it's time to see if he has the mindset. Second only put Todd Coffey in a game with runners on; a lot of pitchers can't work with that kind of pressure, Coffey can't work without it. Third, cut Mike Stanton. Fourth go after a guy like, or specifically, David Riske. While appearing in a whooping 65 games in 2007 with the lowly Royals, Riske posted a 2.45 era. A 3-year, $10 million dollar* contract would be expensive, but affordable. *May have to pay more....I would. Finally, Reds fans should pray that Gary Majewski is the pitcher they traded for and not a physical and mental train wreck. A bullpen consisting of Bill Bray and Jon Coutlangus from the left side and Stormy, Riske, Majewski, Coffey, and Burton from the right side would not only be better than last year, but could become one of the best in the bigs.

(Not So) Free Agents

The last few entries have covered the Reds future if they stick with what they have and don't go after any free agents, however there are a few players I'd like to see the front office sign. As far as starters go the market is as thin as ever, Kyle Loshe may fetch close to $8 million, so in order for the Reds to find a guy to bridge the gap between Aaron Harang and, well, everyone else, they might have to take a flyer on somebody. Now this risk can be a calculated one, there are starters out there who are ready to return to respectability. I'll give you a name and the chances of that player becoming a Red. Andy Pettitte is the biggest name, but if he returns it will probably be with the Yankees. Chances Pettitte will be a Red in 2008: 0%. Kris Benson is coming off rotator cuff surgery and was never really as good as is contracts anyway. Chances he will be a Red 5%. Randy Wolf could be ready to return to form and if he does I would like him behind Bronson Arroyo, but only for about $5-6 million which probably won't happen. Chances he'll be a Red 10%. Jason Jennings might be an affordable option, but is there too much of a reason for that? The former first round pick has disappointed all but one season and found it hard to get an out in the NL Central last season. Chances he'll be a Red 5%. Matt Clement would be another low risk (possibly) high reward type player. It's yet to be seen what the market will yield for a guy like Clement but he would most likely be affordable for the Reds. Though he hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, Clement does have a decent track record when healthy. If the price is right I'd like to see the Reds go after him. Chances he'll be in Cincinnati 10%. Carlos Silva has the control anyone would want in a starting pitcher (171 walks in 945 career innings) and he is the youngest starter on the market. Silva boasts a career era of 4.31 in the superior American League. There are two strikes against Silva; his price tag ($40 million for four years) and the fact that he gave up 38 home runs in 2006, hello GABP. Chances Silva will be a Red 15%, chances they'll look into him 95%. Freddy Garcia is another guy who has underachieved the last couple seasons, which is good for the Reds. In this market Garcia will probably fetch slightly less than Silva, but could turn out to be the better choice. Like Silva, Garcia has great control, but might find it difficult pitching in a matchbox. Garcia also has a short, but very successful playoff history. Chances he'll be a Red 15%. The best news about this free agent pitching market for the Reds is that Eric Milton is on it. Tomorrow I'll be looking at free agent relievers.

Future Weapons

Over the last few days I've talked about the young prospects the Reds have at their disposal, the future may look bright but it will mean absolutely nothing if the pitching doesn't get better. There is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the starting rotation for the coming years. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are under contract until 2011 and are good one (Harang) and three (Arroyo) starters. I would almost be tempted to set Arroyo as a fourth starter, but he is a horse and in the National League he is in the upper tier. Homer Bailey should be ready to take the leap to number two by 2009, keeping Arroyo as number two for 2008. Bailey certainly has the potential to be an ace in the vein of a Jake Peavy (please God), but will sit comfortably behind Harang for several seasons. My hope for 2007 is that if and when Homer Bailey struggles Dusty Baker keeps him with the big club; Bailey has proven all he can in the minors. Johnny Cueto is another interesting name going forward. Cueto has put up impressive numbers at every level of the minor leagues, but as much as I'd like to see him in the rotation on opening day he should probably spend a couple months at triple-A and wait for an injury. Matt Belisle would be my choice for the fourth starter out of spring training. Belisle is still young and has some of the best stuff in the organization. He'll probably never be more than a fourth starter, but if the Reds are going to do anything in 2008 Belisle will play a big part in the success. Matthew Maloney is the player the Reds received for Kyle Lohse from the Phillies, and could be the fifth starter next season. Maloney posted 13 wins and a very respectable 3.64 era between double A and triple A last year. Most importantly he struck out 177 and walked only 54 and while throwing left handed.

Infield Outlook

The Reds have several young future stars in the outfield, but while the infield isn't quite as stacked there are a few names to look for. I would be wasting my time if I were to sit here a go over what Brandon Phillips has already accomplished in his young career; suffice it to say 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and gold glove quality defense isn't too much to expect from this exciting young player. When Alex Gonzalez isn't what most would call young (30), he certainly has six to seven peak years ahead of him. His defense speaks for its self (a career fielding percentage of .970) and his offense isn't nearly as bad as some expected. A combination of good protection, consistent at bats, and Great American Ball Park will equal career highs for Gonzalez in years to come. Reds fans undoubtedly enjoy their glimpse of Joey Votto at the end of the 2007 season. The left-handed slugger showed why fans and reporters had been clamoring for his call up since the All-Star break. While Votto's approach at the plate is quite different than that of Josh Hamilton the results are similar. Both have very good power to all fields (Hamilton's probably better), both can take pitches away to left field, both have deceptive speed, and both need to work on being patient. The only clear hole in Votto's game would be his defense but if Scott Hatteberg, with his limited physically ability, can play first base, Votto can learn. Edwin Encarnacion may be the most intriguing of the Reds young players. He has flashed greatness at the plate and in the field in small doses. Eddie could become a perennial All-Star and important cog for a championship team, but could also turn out to be a below average defensive third baseman and a frustrating disappointment with a bat in his hands; he'll most likely end up somewhere in the middle. Next in line come names like Jerry Gil and Jeff Keppinger. Neither of these players should become a starter over the former names but both could be solid back-ups and bench pieces. Last, there are names like Paul Janish, Justin Turner, Chris Valaika, and Jose Castro. All of these players could have their names on the back of a Reds uniform in the future, but with the young guys already in the majors, their work is cut out for them. If anything it is nice to know the Reds have the ability to absorb an injury or have a decent trade piece without completely falling apart.

A New Deep

The Reds have something this year that they haven't been used to; depth. With a bevy of talented young players, especially in the outfield, the team has several interesting options. Barring any moves the starting outfield looks like Adam Dunn in left, Josh Hamilton in center, and Ken Griffey Jr. in right. Off the bench the Reds have Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel as formidable options. This would be a very good flock of players for Dusty Baker, but I'm going to go deeper, where the future is much brighter than the present. Jay Bruce, who was the minor league player of the year for 2007, is ready of the big time. Bruce has drawn comparisons to many All-Star caliber major leaguers, however we're probably two years away from prospects being touted as Bruce-like. When Bruce is a known future star, Chris Dickerson (shown) is a name lost in the fray. Dickerson blasted 14 home runs, drove in 55 runs, and stole 30 bases in 2007 for double A Chattanooga and triple A Louisville. Drew Stubbs is another outfielder who is knocking on the Redleg's door. While Stubbs spent most of the season with single A Dayton his age, 23, and his play, 12 homers, 43 RBI, 23 steals, and solid defense, paint a picture of a guy on the cusp. Bruce (21 at the season's start), Dickerson (24), and Stubbs are ready for their shot with the big club; for this reason the Reds have to look to trade Griffey, Hopper, and/or Freel. Trading veterans will free up spots for the younger guys as well as freeing up payroll to be spent on pitching and long-term contracts for the likes of Dunn and Brandon Phillips. Monday and Tuesday I'll look at the youth the Reds have in the infield and on the pitching staff.

Gloves

Hello all, I'm Tom and I'll be trying to help Adam out with this blog, giving my two cents whenever I can. I just started a new job, so I wanted to make a good impression. Good impressions do not include blogging from work while pouring over retrosheet data. My main goal is to educate and foster critical analysis of the Reds over the course of this blog. So here goes..

The glove, often overlooked in the clubhouse locker, is an integral part of the game of baseball. Most of the time its the bat that does the talking, gets people excited, and fattens the wallet. Fielding improves pitching, and wins more baseball games. I want to explore the fielding, and how the Reds' defense stacks up against other teams. For the most part when using figures I'll ignore the AL and their crazy DH and incompetent managers who can't pull off a nice double switch. The game is played differently in the AL, so when speaking of defensive metrics, I'll only use the NL.

Some basic knowledge to get down. Fielding % is the 3rd most useless statistic in baseball (behind pitching W-L and the RBI in my opinion), and I won't reference it to tout the laurels of a player, or detract from his abilities. I'll instead use some slightly newer metrics but still very viable.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR) is essentially the % of balls hit into a player's zone that he turns into outs. This doesn't take into account balls hit out of his zone, whether plays are made on them or not. Each position has the same size zone, which makes comparing across positions very easy. Brandon Phillips had the highest RZR among NL 2B last year, for those Hudson fans.

Outside of Zone (OOZ) is the number of outs made on balls outside of the player's specified zone. Balls that should fall for hits that are turned into outs comprise the OOZ number. OOZ is relative to innings, so keep that in mind. Orlando Hudson had the highest OOZ number amongst NL 2B last year.

The Reds had a team RZR of .812 and 338 OOZ plays. NL league average in both categories was .818 and 379 respectively. This doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know, the Reds are a below average defensive team. This is a glaring problem. Especially playing in GABP, you can't allow extra baserunners when those men are more likely to turn into runs for the opposing team. For those wondering, the best RZR was the Mets at .839 and the Braves made a whopping 454 plays outside of their zone. Both teams had winning records, needless to say. This means that the Mets on average fielded 2.7% more hit balls per player per position. That's an enormous difference over the course of a season. The Reds had the second worst RZR in the NL and the OOZ numbers were less than impressive, we all can agree they need to improve for 2008.

Individually, the Reds are very strong up the middle with both Gonzalez and Phillips playing with above average RZR and OOZ numbers. Hamilton has one of the highest RZR numbers in CF, while Freel has a very good OOZ number. These numbers agree pretty much with what you see with your naked eyes. Assuming no unforeseen moves, the Reds appear fairly set up the middle, with all four guys under contract next season. And these metrics don't even count the fantastic arms all three of the guys have.

At the corners is a different story. The platoon of Hatteberg/Conine was awful at 1b. Like David Ortiz awful, making 10% less plays in their zone than league average 1b. And don't even bring Derek Lee into the discussion, his defense blows them both out of the water. This looks to improve next season, and there is reason for hope. Joey Votto is likely to take over first base duties. Scouts say his defense is a "work in progress" but about average. He is a converted catcher and very athletic, so he has the potential to be much better defensively than the two-headed first basemen the Reds employed in 2007.

Edwin Encarnacion was vastly improved in 2007, especially once returning from his AAA stint. His plate patience was much better, and he finished the season with the highest batting average of any Reds regular. However, as bad as Conine/Hatteberg were, Encarnacion was much the same. He made a normal amount of outstanding plays outside his zone, but on average he made 8% less plays on balls in his zone. 2008 can only be an improvement. Double E is still young, and has the potential to be a league average 3B defensively. Ryan Zimmerman he will never be, but one can hope for middle of the road.

The corners in the outfield were an adventure to say the least. Griffey benefited health-wise in the move to RF, and he made some decent plays out there. His RZR was almost exactly league average, meaning he made the plays he was supposed to, the routine. However, his OOZ was one of the worst in the NL among everyday RF. For those wondering, the best statistical right fielder in the NL was former Dayton Dragon Austin Kearns. Too bad Kearns forgot his bat in 2006, posting only league average offensive numbers. Outlook for 2008.. bleak. Unless Griffey is moved (of which I'm a proponent), his Dr. Strangeglove act is only going to get worse. He showed a decent arm at times, even throwing a few guys out, but his legs aren't getting any quicker. If Griffey is traded, Hamilton would slide over to right, and the Reds would see a great improvement in overall team outfield defense, but that's unlikely to happen.

Now on to every one's favorite defensive player, the Big Donkey Adam Dunn. Donkey has been the butt of many jokes, especially at the hands of Marty Brennamen regarding his perceived lack of hustle in the field. Dunn was below average in 2007, but not as bad as people think. He made plays on 3% less balls in his zone than average, and about 4% less OOZ plays over NL left fielders. Those numbers aren't great, but they're not the butcher job being displayed at the infield corners. 2008 outlook, push. His defense improved in 2007, but I don't expect anything drastic to change. He'll never be average in LF, but that's not why he's on the roster.

The Reds need to look to improve their team defense in 2008 in order to be more successful. Under Mackanin, the team was seen taking fielding practice before a few games. Fielding practice is unheard of in MLB this day and age. It'd be nice to see more stress placed on it, but that is unlikely to happen. Instead, we as Reds fans can only hope for improvement from the young players and the aging players to just hold their ground. Remember, over thousands of innings of a baseball season, even a few percentage points of defensive improvement can mean the difference between the playoffs and being the Brewers.

A Little Help Dealing

Firstly I would like to welcome a good friend and baseball mastermind to the blog. Thomas Pfister shares my unhealthy love for baseball and the Reds. He is also well versed in statistics that you have never heard of. Hopefully Tom will be adding to the blog soon, in the meantime be sure to read (and add) the comments to see his viewpoints. If you read the comments from yesterday you saw a couple trade scenarios that Tom came up with. First there was Edwin Encarnacion for Yankees young (potential) stud Ian Kennedy. The AP reported that while in talks with the Florida Marlins (for Miguel Cabrera interestingly enough), Hank Steinbrenner made it clear that Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy were not on the table, especially for a position player. Granted, every player in baseball is on the table for the right price, also the Yankees would be fools not to give up Kennedy for Cabrera. That being said, if this deal could be finagled I would pull the trigger in a heartbeat. Eddie is an important piece for the Reds, but he could serve a greater good as trade bait. The Yankees need a 3rd baseman, Eddie is still very young (24), cheap (not that they care), and has huge upside. The second trade Tom came up with was Ken Griffey Jr. for Twins veteran Carlos Silva. I also like this move; with fan favorite Torii Hunter most likely out in Minnesota, Griffey would be an easy sell for the front office. The only hitch would be that from what I've read Silva is up for salary arbitration, however, even if he were given a pretty decent bump in pay he would still be a bargain. Silva eats innings (averaging over 190 during the last four seasons), is young (28), and durable (averages over 30 starts since 2004). As Reds fans we can be hesitant to trade favorites like Griffey or home grown players like Eddie, but in order to get on a winning track changes have to be made. Everyone is a fan favorite on a winning team.

The Kids Are Alright

I was enjoying the Hot Stove League radio program last night and have to mention something Thom Brennaman brought up. A caller asked what moves he would make if he were the Reds general manager. He first mentioned dangling Ken Griffey Jr. on the trade market. Not only do I agree, I think Wayne Krivsky should let it be known that unless no realistic offer is made Griffey will be moved. I appreciate what Griffey has done for baseball and more specifically for the Reds but there is no way they are going to sign him after the 2008 season so they should get something via a trade. Brad Lidge was traded yesterday and most people won't agree but I would have taken Brad Lidge for Griffey Jr. Brennaman also said that he would start a youth movement immediately. He spoke of an outfield of Adam Dunn in left, Josh Hamilton in center, and Jay Bruce in right. Jay Bruce may experience some growing pains at the plate from time to time, but he'll be an upgrade defensively and he's the future; not Hopper, not Freel, and not Griffey. Brennaman's infield was Edwin Encarnacion at 3rd, Alex Gonzalez at short, Brandon Phillips at 2nd, and Joey Votto at 1st. Great defense (and pretty darn good offense) up the middle and a good right and left handed bat at 3rd and 1st. Finally Thom's rotation would be Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, and a pitcher the team would pick up before spring training. I'll go him one better, Matt Belisle would be my fifth starter (actually probably fourth; Cueto fifth). 2007 was Belisle's first full year as a starter and his numbers compare closely to Harang's first full season. The bullpen obviously needs work, but if David Weathers gives another season like 2007, Jared Burton and Bill Bray get a year better, and Gary Majewski can ever get healthy, the relievers aren't as bad as one may think. All in all I agree with Brennaman, with the talent the Reds have in triple-A and the disappointment of last season it is time to see what the young guys can do.

I'm Sorry...What!?

The latest Rawlings Gold Gloves were handed out yesterday evening and it's more obvious than ever that the voters are getting painfully lazy. Greg Maddux check, Ichiro check, Andruw Jones check, Torii Hunter check, Orlando Hudson check- umm huh? The same Orlando Hudson that plays second base for the Diamondbacks? Don't get me wrong "O-Dog" is a very good player but I thought the Gold Glove for second base had already been engraved with the name of Brandon Phillips. There are many considerations that go into the Gold Gloves, let's go through them. 1. Defense- Should be most important. O-Dog's fielding percentage for 2007 was .985, very respectable. Phillips fielding percentage was .990 (actually a little higher when you consider his time at shortstop where he was flawless). Point Phillips. 2. Offense- Probably is the most important to voters. Hudson's numbers- batting average .294, home runs 10. RBI 63, stolen bases 10. Phillips numbers- batting average .288, home runs 30, RBI 94, stolen bases 32. Point Phillips (big time). 3. Team success- Perhaps taken too much into consideration. Hudson's D-Backs made an (short) appearance in the NLCS. The Reds were out of it after the second game of the season. Point Hudson. And the 2007 Rawlings Gold Glove goes to (drum roll please) Orlando Hudson? For shame.

Hot Stove Cooking

What can we expect from the Reds in 2008? Another sub .500 season? Another second half collapse? A winning record perhaps? How about the World Series? No? I realize fans in Cincinnati have low expectations for the Redlegs but if you breakdown the talent around the National League you would have to at least put them in the top half, and if you consider what they have available in triple-A maybe higher. That being said the roster needs a little tweaking. For everyone who loves Jeff Keppinger and Norris Hopper and hates Adam Dunn bear with me and think big picture. Sign Dunn long term. Do it now and if anything you can continue to root for Brandon Phillips, because if it weren't for the protection Dunn gives him, Phillips would be Pokey Reese. Next you have to look to move Keppinger, Hopper, and/or Ryan Freel. I would prefer to keep Freel out of this bunch because he is a known commodity, Keppinger and Hopper gave us nice moments last year but there is a reason they are career minor leaguers. Trade them for relief pitching only, there is no way we could get even a fifth starter for them. It's time to shop Ken Griffery Jr. hard. Don't give him away, but be rational about his value. Try to find a left-handed starter or a dependable reliever. Last off season the Mets traded Heath Bell to the Padres for Ben Johnson(one RBI in nine games) and John Adkins(didn't make the roster). Bell posted a 2.02 era in 93.2 innings. There is no reason Griffey couldn't fetch a pitcher of the ilk. Lastly, do not trade the likes of Josh Hamilton and Jay Bruce unless the names Willis or more preferably Santana are involved. Please leave a comment and check in tomorrow.

Opening Day

This is a blog for anyone who has an opinion of the Cincinnati Reds. I hope fans will read and leave their thoughts on the team or my viewpoints. I will criticize and praise moves the team makes, I will give you moves that I think they should make, and I will give you back stories of players and coaches. During the season I will recap games and look ahead to upcoming match ups. Check daily for updates. Thank you, Adam