Fair Trade?

As you may have been able to tell, Josh Hamilton was traded during the time I was writing the last entry. I have let it sink in a little and after listening to many angry Reds fans I have still yet to form a strong opinion on the deal. It seems most fans in Cincinnati are up in arms and I can understand where they are coming from. Josh Hamilton could become one of the best all-around players in the game, if he ever plays a full season he should be an obvious All-Star and possible MVP candidate. And, although we hear about Cincy having a logjam in the outfield, I'm not sure I agree. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. are in the last year of their contracts (I know Grif has an option) and I'm pretty sure Dunn will stay but that still only gives us he and Jay Bruce for 2009. Also, this Edinson Volquez is anything but a sure thing. Volquez was the diamond in the Rangers system two years ago, but after an injury and several road blocks Volquez became an expendable player for a pitcher-starved franchise. However, Wayne Krivsky has a number of reasons to be optimistic about this trade. Josh Hamilton was riddled with injury in 2007, and it wasn't like it was one thing that kept nagging him, one week it was one thing, the next week it was something else. Another point for the GM is that when Hamilton has a great bat, he is left-handed like Adam Dunn, Griffey, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Scott Hatteberg. Finally the strongest argument anyone in favor of this deal would have would be summed up in the position these guys play. While I don't personally buy the "too many outfielders" argument, one can't deny the Reds have too little pitching. If the Reds don't land Erik Bedard (which I don't think they will at this point) they can go into Spring Training with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo set in their rotation and Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Matt Belisle, Matt Maloney, and Edinson Volquez competing for the final three spots. And trust me, that would be much, much better than those they had competing last season.

Extra Points

Just a couple things to think about as you wonder if the Reds are going to end 2007 without another major move. I was listening to Marty and Thom do the Reds Hot Stove League last night and they talked about the obvious things; steriods, Joe Nuxhall, trades, etc. Marty did make one interesting point, he voiced his concern about the Reds lack off a leadoff hitter. It is easy to look at the line up and think that the Reds are set and possibly over-set at each position. But, while it's nice to give Josh Hamilton 5 at bats each game, he is a prototypical three hole hitter. And don't give me the Norris Hopper noise, I like Hopper, I really do, but he is most valuable to the Reds as a bench guy (I watched first hand as he beat the D-Backs with an 8th inning pinch hit). Even if Hopper were starting he's more of a 7th or 8th spot guy. Unfortunately, this need usually gets over looked. It is certainly not as important as another starter, but just think if they had a .400+ obp guy who could steal 50 bases hitting ahead of Phillips, Hamilton, Dunn, and Griffey. The only thing the Reds would possibly do about this problem would be start Jay Bruce. Grady Sizemore very successfully leads off for the Indians and one unnamed scout from an American League team said Jay Bruce is a lot like Sizemore, just better, at everything. Also I read on ESPN.com that a beat writer for the Baltimore Orioles said that a deal for Erik Bedard most likely will happen, but not until January. There have been reports that the Reds will use Edinson Volquez, the new pitcher they got for Josh Hamilton, as another piece to acquire Bedard. If Volquez/Votto/and Bailey is on the table for Erik Bedard I'm not sure what Baltimore is waiting for. Tomorrow I will look deeper into the Hamilton trade.

Closing In On Jared Burton

An e-mail sent to me from Tom: Yo, I'm working on an article for the sight comparing the pitch f/x data that charts the movement on pitches and allows you to compare pitchers and their pitches. The system was installed in a portion of MLB parks last year, and its used on the GameCast on MLB.com to help show what type of pitch was thrown. Well, I've been analyzing Jared Burton especially, and it turns out he throws an almost exact Mariano Rivera cutter. They both get hit harder by righties than lefties as well, which accounts for the cutter moving in on lefties and away from righties. Whether he knows he's throwing this pitch or not, I'm not sure. I haven't heard it mentioned on anything I've seen about the Reds or by Marty or anyone. But this certainly bodes very well for the future of Burton, if he can throw this pitch consistently and he actually knows what he's doing. This information is obviously exciting for several reasons. Francisco Cordero is going to be the Reds closer (barring injury) for the next three years. Cordero has a very good track record, but the batters in the NL Central have seen him. I'm not suggesting I think he will be a flash in the pan, but closers not named Rivera or Hoffman come with a limited shelf-life. Jared Burton should be poised to take over the job if Cordero's arm falls off in spring training. I have been saying that Burton should keep his position as set up man in 2008 so he remains used to pressure situations and because of Stormy's ability to pitch with runners on will better serve the team in early innings. This information Tom offers gives us hope that these plans for Burton can take place. Hopefully he doesn't go to the same shrink as Todd Coffey.

Next Steps?

Dan Haren is gone (to Arizona) and with each passing day it seems that Erik Bedard is getting further and further out of reach. The fact that Haren fetched six player doesn't really bode well for the Reds' attempt to acquire Bedard. Although they have a decent haul to offer (Homer Bailey, Joey Votto/ Josh Hamilton, and another prospect), it would be difficult and possibly wasteful for the Reds to find six guys to send to Baltimore. Nashville native and Kentucky alum, Joe Blanton is the new name on the block. It is not completely clear whether A's GM Billy Beane is willing to part with Blanton, but everyone has a price. Blanton's price would be considerably lower than that of Haren and Bedard. If the Reds could pull off a deal for Blanton without Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this would be the best offseason of my life. It may not be possible, but perhaps Joey Votto paired with Josh Hamilton or Edwin Encarnacion and a prospect or two could entice Oakland. Josh Hamilton would be a huge upgrade over Mark Kotsay in centerfield, Eddie would be an affordable replacement to a soon-to-be-traded Eric Chavez, and while Daric Barton has high hopes in Oakland, Joey Votto would certainly play over Travis Buck in left field. I'm not sure I would do it, but if the Reds were to offer Homer Bailey up for Joe Blanton this deal could get done in no time. While Blanton is a horse (230 innings last season), he really isn't an ace, in fact the Reds would probably place him after Bronson Arroyo. It's a tough call trading a prized prospect for a known commodity. If it were straight up Blanton for Bailey I think I'd do it. Keeping Eddie is important because he's a righty and young, keeping Hamilton is important because he can play right next year when Jay Bruce is full-time centerfielder, and keeping Votto is important because Scott Hatteberg won't be playing forever. It will be interesting to see what happens. I know Wayne Krivsky wants to acquire another starter, but I also appreciate him not dealing away the team's future for one guy.

The Mitchell Retort

I spent the good part of yesterday afternoon and evening skimming the Mitchell Report and I must say, I want my time back. There were no big names on that list that I hadn't heard whispers about for years. Hal Morris was a little surprising, but I assume he is on the report because of his days with the Yankees. Speaking of the Yanks, it's a little odd how George Mitchell, who holds an official position with the Red Sox, was able to come up with so many Yankees and so little from other teams. The report read more like a 400 page D.A.R.E. handbook than a quasi-legal document. We know drugs are bad. There are some really good things for a Reds fan to take away from the report. Mike Stanton is the only active Red on the list. Mike Stanton? Quite possibly the worst guy on the team? Dude, when did you get off the juice? At least we can say 'well our team sucks because nobody is on steroids'. I have never once thought of Adam Dunn as a user, but with so many home runs in his young career I'm sure there have been suspicions. The fact that Dunn wasn't names, but has faced pitchers who were, just makes his accomplishments that much better. Honestly the whole thing is pretty pointless. The most that will come out of it will be a few suspensions here and there, but it's still one man's word against anothers. I heard yesterday that one player who's name is on the list for a returned check written to Radomski (the Mets clubhouse guy), was able to prove that check was written for the clubhouse attendants to buy pizza. Checks are another thing. What kind of guy buys drugs with a check? I'm not going to say it didn't happen, but a good many of those names came from check copies and I don't think very many people are that careless. I don't know; this is all I'll write about the Mitchell Report, but it is the biggest news in baseball right now, so I though I'd mention it.

Swap Meet

Well, it looks like Wayne Krivsky may not be willing to wait around for Erik Bedard. There have been several reports coming out of Cincinnati and the Bay Area linking the Reds to much heralded Dan Haren. I can't express who much I love Krivsky's fortitude. He knows that when Johan Santana finally gets dealt it will only be a matter of time before Bedard and Haren are sent packing. The fact that the Reds are in on both Bedard and Haren tells me that Krivsky is pretty sure they are in a good position to acquire one. If one guy is moved to a team other than the Reds it leaves Wayne as the front runner for the other. This leaves a fellow like to me consider the pros and cons of each player. Dan Haren is 27 and will be rather affordable the next couple years. He started the All-Star Game in 2007, ahead of Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia. Haren is consistent, he pitched over 215 innings for three straight years, logged 34 starts in that span, and won 14, 14, and 15 games. My personal favorite thing about Dan Haren possibly becoming a Red would be facing Tony LaRussa. Mr. Baseball wasn't too excited about trading Haren for Mark Mulder in 2005, so it would be great to see Haren mow down that so-called lineup. Erik Bedard's biggest pro is his left arm. Bedard is also pretty young 28, but would command a pay increase sooner than Haren. Bedard faces better hitters day in day out in the A.L. East, but has never logged 200 innings. The final strike against Bedard is he is without a sweet beard, Haren on the other hand rocks a powerful mane. Bedard is still probably Krivsky's first choice, but he has put himself in great position to start 2008 with another starter.

Hold On A Second

John Fay, Reds beat writer, reported the end of last week that a deal between the Reds and Orioles involving Erik Bedard and Homer Bailey is still on the table. Fay mentions that Joey Votto and another prospect would be involved. Since the Orioles completely suck and have a need at basically every position you may be able to insert Edwin Encarnacion or Josh Hamilton in place of Joey Votto. With that being said I think I'll take this opportunity to change my stance on Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton. It seems there are more than a few in the Reds organization who believe Josh Hamilton would best serve the team as trade bait. Is Hamilton ever going to be able to really fully recover athletically? I'll say now that Hamilton at 27 in May, with the questions is on the same trade plain with Joey Votto at 23. With Jay Bruce and to a lesser extent Chris Dickerson waiting for their opportunities at the majors, even with his extreme abilities,Hamilton could be traded. Back to Bedard. If the Reds could pull this deal off by sending Homer Bailey, Votto (or Eddie or Hamilton), and a minor leaguer that isn't Bruce or Johnny Cueto I'd be pleased as punch. I would then, reasonably would expect Bob Castellini to pony up the money to keep Bedard in Cincy for several years. These two things would have to happen (no Cueto and no Bruce and extension) for me to support this trade. I think if the Reds are man enough it could happen. Votto and Bailey give the Orioles two big pieces to sell their fans and trade in four years. And imagine the rotation for the Reds. Aaron Harang, Erik Bedard, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Belisle, and Johnny Cueto. If a team would have to face Harang and Bedard to open a series they would strike out so many times that by the time game three rolls around Arroyo would be able to confuse hitters to no end. With a line up of (assuming Hamilton is the one moved) Jay Bruce leading off (for lack of a better option), Brandon Phillips two, Adam Dunn, Eddie, Griffey Jr. Alex Gonzalez, Joey Votto, and David Ross catching. Merged with an improved bullpen I like this team's chances in a league that produced the Colorado Rockies in 2007.

Upon Further Review

Well, the Winter Meetings have come and gone and the Reds have nothing to show for the week's work. Yet, we should not fret, a move could still be made between today and Spring Training. I have to say I'm a little disappointed Wayne Krivsky didn't come away with another starter, but I am glad he didn't mortgage the future for a four of five guy. They did pick up a guy in the Rule 5 draft; Sergio Valenzuela will most likely be fighting for a spot in the bullpen come Feburary. Valenzuela is a 23 year old, righty who is doing very well in winter league play, but doesn't have much else on his resume. But somebody saw something in him, so let us cross our collective fingers and hope for Jared Burton part two. What I want to touch on today is the notorious trade that went down between the Reds and Nationals in 2006. Cincinnati was up in arms when their native son (Austin Kearns), heir apparent to Barry Larkin (Felipe Lopez), and first-round pick (Ryan Wagner) were traded to evil Jim Bowden. Not only was it heartbreaking to see those players go, who did the Reds get in return? Royce Clayton!!!! Are you kidding me?! Well, I am, as I'm sure you are, glad to see Royce Clayton out of town. Brenden Harris was another piece that has been shipped out. Harris had a decent season with the Devil Rays in 2007, and while the Reds don't need a starting middle infielder, it wouldn't hurt to have Harris as a backup. Oh well. Gary Majewski and Bill Bray were supposed to fill right in the bullpen and change the season. Majewski was alleged to be damaged goods and may never recover, but if he ever does return to his best form he'll make the Reds pen one of the elite. Bray is still young, 24, and left-handed so he will be forgiven for his sub-par numbers last season. While with the Nationals, Bray's face was plastered all over press releases, so as far as the Nats I think Bray was the biggest piece they gave up. But none of these names are who I find intriguing. Daryl Thompson is the last, long forgotten piece of this deal. I personally watched one of Thompson's five starts in Low-A Dayton last year, and I can say without hesitation if he progress as he should, he will be in the majors in a couple seasons. Thompson, who just celebrated his 22nd birthday, had 14 wins against 5 loses between Low and High-A baseball while posting an ERA of 3.18. He pitched 133 innings and gave up 122 hits, only 33 walks, and struck out 121. If he can make the bigs by 2009 to fill out a rotation of Aaron Harang, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and himself, Daryl Thompson will most certainly be the biggest piece of that trade.......for both sides.

The Krivsky House Rules

You know, as a Reds fan I should probably not take much stock in what I read. While doing this blog, half of the deals I come up with are reports I've read and the other half are just thoughts and day dreams I have. As it turns out, they are both equally inaccurate. GM Wayne Krivsky is in Nashville for the Winter Meetings but he most certainly left the lock box that holds the key to his bolted mouth in Cincinnati. If I've learned anything from the 14 or so months he has been the Reds general manager, it should be that Krivsky is prone to making deals out of the blue and he keeps them as close to the vest as possible. I read today that the Reds are interested in Blue Jays right fielder Alex Rios. Rios is good, probably a little overrated, but he is a righty with a little pop, which is a need. However, if the rumors are true that the Giants may be offering up Tim Lincecum for him, I hope the Reds are just in it for fun. Homer Bailey would probably be the closest thing the Reds have to Lincecum, and it would be foolish to give up a potential ace for a guy who is a little better than Austin Kearns. I am, however, a little worried about trading away all our offense for pitching; I have no problem with trading Joey Votto, Josh Hamilton, Edwin Encarnacion, or even Adam Dunn, but only one of them. Now, if we could get anything for Ken Griffey Jr., Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, or Jeff Keppinger I'd pull that trigger for all of them. But who knows what's going through that balding head of Krivsky's, chances are good he will come through with a deal nobody has thought of, hopefully it will be worthwhile. I would almost bet at this point Krivsky is happy to wait and let teams come to him, or at least wait for Johan Santana to be traded which could possibly open the trading flood gates.

Wells, Wells, Wells

It's reported that the Reds have talked to the agent of David Wells. Wells spent a little time with the Reds in the nineties but was only in town long enough for a slight boon for the local bars. I guess for a one year deal I wouldn't be opposed to this signing, Wells is a lefty which is a need and he did pitch 157 innings last season which isn't bad for a fifth starter (he would be the fifth starter no matter where he's put in the rotation). I would only make this deal if it were cheap (probably incentive laden), Wells will be 45 and looks to be ready for his first heart attack. There have also been several reports that the Reds have slight interest in Glendon Rusch. This has to be a joke, and if it is it's a pretty good one. See, the Astros and Cardinals have also shown interest in Rusch (who really, really sucks for those of you who don't remember), perhaps Krivsky is just jacking up his price for division rivals. Glendon Rusch to the Cards could be the best move the Reds make this off season. Although the Reds don't have much money it was a little disappointing to see David Riske sign with the Brewers for such a small amount (3 years $13 million). It looks like the Reds have turned a considerable amount of attention to Erik Bedard. John Fay of the Cincy Inquirer has mentioned the Orioles are looking at Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and other unamed prospect. It would be tough, but if the Redlegs could pound out a 3 to 5 year deal with Bedard before the trade I would be willing to part with Bailey and Votto. Jon Lieber is another name the Reds have thrown out. Just because he shuts down the Reds on a regular basis doesn't make him an All-Star, just ask the Pirates staff. I think I'd rather stand pat than sign Lieber. Lastly, there is a rumor about Josh Hamilton to the Rays, but nothing has come of it yet. With the trade of Buck Coats to the Blue Jays and the release of Jorge Cantu the Reds have an open roster spot so expect something.

A San Francisco Treat?

It has been whispered that the Reds and Giants have been in talks about the Giants young potential ace Tim Lincecum. The name the Giants keep bringing up is Jay Bruce and hopefully at that point Krivsky either turns their attention to any other player or turns his back and leaves the room. Lincecum is more than likely going to be a stud as soon as next year, but with Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto holding that kind of potential I would hate to see the Reds trade away their best offensive (and defensive) prospect. Now the Giants do need young bats and they have been reported to be interested in Edwin Encarnacion so I wouldn't expel all rumors of a deal with San Fran. Perhaps since they have an obscene amount of starting pitching Eddie could fetch more from the Giants than he could elsewhere. As I am writing this I'm reading such a notion from Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. Crasnick also mentions the possibility of the Cubs wanting Josh Hamilton for Sean Marshall. I pray this deal doesn't happen; it reeks of Dave Williams. This has no merit, but I think Krivsky should do what he can to trade Norris Hopper to the Nationals. Jim Bowden seems to be a little trade happy and reportedly has an interest in moving Jon Rauch and Chad Cordero. Bowden loves Reds players maybe he'd like Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper for Jon Rauch. Sadly, I think he'd make that deal. One last note on Dontrelle Willis, it turns out the Marlins would want Homer Bailey and to that I say forget it. The Winter Meetings are so exciting, this is like an early Christmas. Even if no deals get done at least it's fun to talk about.

Talkin' 'Bout Willis

Two reports (SI.com and ESPN.com) have the Reds interested in Marlin's ace Dontrelle Willis. It seems the Marlins might be interested in several Reds for several different reasons. 1. Josh Hamilton- The Fish have been without a legit center fielder since Juan Pierre and Hamilton fits everything the Marlins look for; young, cheap, and unsightly talented. 2. Edwin Encarnacion- Florida will most likely say goodbye to their only offensive force in third baseman Miguel Cabrera. Eddie also fits the mold. 3. Homer Bailey- This piece would make the deal happen. Homer has the potential to be an ace and would be a perfect trading piece for the Marlins in four years. 4. Johnny Cueto- See Homer Bailey. 5. Joey Votto- Like Hamilton and Encarnacion, Votto would give the Fish a bat, something they are desperately missing. As much as I'd like to see Willis in Cincinnati on Opening Day, I'm not sure I'd give up the farm to make it happen. Its true that Dontrelle is a couple years removed from 22 wins, but he has quickly regressed since. Willis was 3rd in the NL last season with 15 losses and 87 walks, while giving up a career high 29 home runs. For those very reasons he comes at a price the Reds can pay and any time a 25 year old lefty with Cy Young stuff can be attained I have a hard time turning my back..........so I'm not sure where I stand. I know personally I would not give up Bailey or Cueto. Although one young pitcher would have to go, I would do what I could to make the deal and keep Homer and Johnny. I would give two out of Hamilton, Votto, and Encarnacion, but it would be doubtful that the Marlins would bite even if a single A prospect were involved. Tomorrow I'll touch on the reports of Tim Lincecum to the Reds.

Donkey Bigger In Texas?

First of all I want you all to read the comments Tom made to my last entry. He brought up several interesting points about acquiring Scott Kazmir. I read earlier that the Texas Rangers have an interest in Adam Dunn. This makes sense for the Rangers, they lost an outfielder in Gary Matthews Jr. last season and they missed out on Torii Hunter this year. The question is; can Texas make this deal worth while for the Reds? The answer.......probably not. I know, even after all my attempts to sway you, there are many of you that would trade Dunn for a pouch of Big League Chew, which, ironically would be about the best the Rangers could offer. I would only trade Dunn for a major league ready ace and honestly the Rangers don't have a starter worthy the title of goat. Turns out these wacky texans also have an interest in Josh Hamilton but considering we were just discussing giving Hamilton in a package to acquire Scott Kazmir, the Rangers have their work cut out for them. Lastly, there have been reports that the Reds may be interested in signing Matt Clement, which makes sense considering the Dusty Baker connection. I have to be honest, I've never been a fan of Clement. I think he had a good deal of talent which never really translated into wins, but with that being said, if his price tag is reasonable ($5 million in this market), I wouldn't be opposed to signing Clement. It is quite possible he has matured and has learned how to pitch without getting injured or step outside without having an asthma attack (see Chicago 2002-2004). And maybe, just maybe being set behind Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and hopefully somebody else will take much of the comeback pressure off Clement. Winter meetings start tomorrow so be sure to check in for the latest news.