Monday, January 7, 2008

Pressure Drop


I have spent the last several months researching free agent pitchers and pining over improbable trades for ace-like starters. Today I want to bring up another glaring problem with the Redlegs that if left unsolved will be just one more reason why the team doesn't win. As it seems today the Opening Day roster will have either Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel starting center field and leading off. As bench players Hopper and Freel are very good pieces. Freel can steal a base in late-inning situations and Hopper can punch a single against most relievers. But as every day lead off batters neither has the speed to get 50+ stolen bases or an OBP that scares anyone. Now a quick fix to this problem would be start Jay Bruce in center on Opening Day and bat him lead off. This would be as ideal as things could get, Bruce is better defensively than Hopper and Freel and it would give the young hitter an extra at bat every game. Unfortunately, I doubt this will happen. As much as I would like to see him, Bruce will most likely spend a few months in triple A (with Johnny Cueto). However, even Bruce isn't a long term answer; he is more than likely the three hole hitter of the future. The position most likely to be open that may offer a lead off hitter in the future is shortstop. Michael Griffin and Justin Turner are the only two guys who have played infield in the minors that could possibly be looked upon as top of the line up players, but it is more possible that neither even make it to the bigs. If the Reds are unable to track down a shortstop like Jose Reyes (not as good, but you get what I'm saying), Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs are interesting names in Cincy's system. Both are too old and promising to be spending much more time in the minors. Stubbs, the Reds first round pick from last year, will be 23 this season and is more of a prototypical lead off guy than anyone else on the team. In his first year Stubbs recorded on OBP of .364, an OPS of .785, 23 steals, and 12 homers. Dickerson has been having success in the minors for a couple years now, but hasn't seen the majors. At 26, it is time for the Reds to make a decision on the outfielder. He would also bring a decent OPS of .796 to the lead off position. Over his career Adam Dunn has had to hear about his low RBI totals, even with his 40+ home runs; it wouldn't be surprising to see Dunn drive in 120 if the Reds ever get a major league lead off hitter.

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